Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75cadae5f7de53420e53fd5433df928104917be1bd47044a82d81c3e7d76e0d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $437,431
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $433,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $437,431 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 77c | 23,554$18,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,361.27 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…a8f2backed No | 1c | 22,374$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e6…2da0backed No | 24c | 18,024$4,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,334 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 11c | 15,039$1,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,638.36 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 25c | 14,927$3,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,719.7 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 31c | 12,147$3,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,765.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Yes | 77c | 11,434$8,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,585.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 15c | 10,145$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.82 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d8…36fdbacked No | 4c | 6,990$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed No | 13c | 6,700$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895.51 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 38cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed No | 14c | 5,997$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.53 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 17c | 5,700$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.48 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 0c | 5,115$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe449…79dbbacked Yes | 79c | 4,849$3,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf643…3900backed Yes | 70c | 4,278$2,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.73 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6da1…8250backed No | 8c | 3,849$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 30c | 3,370$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 13c | 3,210$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.1 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 27c | 3,166$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.56 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked No | 12c | 3,162$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed No | 14c | 3,112$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +197.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 23c | 3,015$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.47 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 12c | 3,015$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc9…9921backed No | 2c | 2,811$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…e9bdbacked No | 19c | 2,666$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 31c | 2,557$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.49 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…b03dbacked Yes | 68c | 2,551$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.39 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 15c | 2,427$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.07 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 29c | 2,377$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.51 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 73c | 2,365$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.36 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed No | 28c | 2,325$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.5 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba4a…713dbacked No | 13c | 2,317$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed No | 1c | 2,298$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,288$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e00…20d1backed No | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 23c | 2,056$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.14 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 5c | 2,013$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…2d43backed No | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf0…da21backed No | 16c | 1,694$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…9ac1backed No | 12c | 1,666$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fd…750ebacked Yes | 72c | 1,650$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…699fbacked Yes | 79c | 1,532$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa5…4044backed No | 20c | 1,511$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd30…b2d2backed No | 1c | 1,433$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 1,412$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.75 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 1,401$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 130 | 2.3%3 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 15c | 1,327$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 77c | 1,312$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.22 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed No | 4c | 1,308$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 6c | 1,300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 5c | 1,283$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 1,267$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 4c | 1,261$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a8…9b6dbacked No | 16c | 1,230$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 6c | 1,203$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -95.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 15c | 1,187$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 67c | 1,100$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed No | 33c | 1,045$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed Yes | 71c | 1,007$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.68 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 9c | 899.99$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 59c | 888$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.08 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…64d3backed No | 2c | 859.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 12c | 852.44$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.54 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 69c | 841.31$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.39 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 11c | 833.13$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.73 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1827…d5a8backed No | 22c | 828.81$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 79c | 811.81$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.32 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0b…f011backed Yes | 71c | 796$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb340…1438backed No | 10c | 755.2$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 11c | 740$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd221…54fdbacked Yes | 75c | 729.99$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 78c | 694.87$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.7 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd300…30adbacked Yes | 72c | 690.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ce…ebefbacked No | 13c | 662$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…129abacked No | 31c | 657.78$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.95 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdd…44b0backed No | 21c | 651.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1a…5abfbacked No | 17c | 630$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…c046backed No | 18c | 603.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb94a…a623backed Yes | 66c | 603.08$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed Yes | 70c | 600$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked No | 19c | 594.23$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.6 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…b696backed No | 20c | 583.79$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa414…d03dbacked No | 20c | 583.56$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…6bccbacked No | 17c | 577.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 556.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…9589backed Yes | 80c | 550.12$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.12 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 63cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 75c | 514.98$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.1 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 28c | 510.52$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.03 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…f2b4backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…ab42backed No | 30c | 498.27$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 33c | 496.01$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62eb…a3b6backed No | 28c | 486.17$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9e…f5bebacked No | 18c | 461.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b75…cf13backed No | 41c | 458.4$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 75c | 452.6$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.46 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x171a…1d50backed Yes | 68c | 450$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 71c | 449.11$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.33 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 27c | 441.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…c27ebacked No | 27c | 438.78$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22?this page
- Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.