Middle East · resolved market
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $736,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $643,993
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $736,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 553 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 70c | 77,820$54,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,506.35 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…b8ecbacked Yes | 28c | 36,593$10,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,121.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…bf90backed Yes | 22c | 30,264$6,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,698.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 14c | 20,813$2,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,929.29 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 68c | 20,716$14,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,672.46 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -9.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 25c | 19,739$4,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,994.28 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 29c | 16,866$4,894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,893.76 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…bfb3backed Yes | 13c | 14,484$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.79 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 15c | 12,909$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6107…6d97backed Yes | 26c | 11,526$2,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed No | 64c | 10,000$6,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 13c | 8,802$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.26 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4428…12adbacked Yes | 24c | 8,618$2,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 6c | 8,543$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.34 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 11c | 7,723$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,873.09 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked No | 43c | 7,557$3,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,294.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 28c | 6,317$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.96 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 47c | 5,912$2,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,792.07 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 68c | 5,698$3,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,883.21 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 8c | 5,655$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 54c | 5,526$2,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,544.64 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked No | 47c | 5,286$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,826.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…4d66backed No | 24c | 5,267$1,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,979.07 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +68.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…9545backed Yes | 79c | 5,110$4,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,052.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 64c | 5,044$3,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,811.22 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 21c | 4,844$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.27 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 59c | 4,422$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.17 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…398bbacked Yes | 54c | 4,413$2,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,392.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…21e6backed No | 66c | 4,276$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed No | 59c | 4,195$2,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,708.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 72c | 3,984$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d55…5ea3backed No | 31c | 3,883$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,696.71 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 9c | 3,663$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 21c | 3,387$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.93 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked Yes | 31c | 3,369$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.97 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 68c | 2,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…7806backed Yes | 44c | 2,791$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 29c | 2,598$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.09 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 15c | 2,596$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.75 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…f1a4backed No | 23c | 2,380$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,821.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 24c | 2,194$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.58 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…3b85backed Yes | 1c | 2,040$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…cc73backed No | 49c | 2,027$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…da48backed Yes | 28c | 2,022$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 19c | 1,999$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.81 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 35c | 1,962$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.02 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03d…189abacked Yes | 30c | 1,947$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.11 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 47c | 1,818$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.15 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 49c | 1,715$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked No | 69c | 1,562$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.78 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed Yes | 67c | 1,528$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 62c | 1,523$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.09 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ea…2ba7backed No | 50c | 1,475$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…e4afbacked No | 35c | 1,442$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 24c | 1,415$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.09 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd7…eb50backed Yes | 22c | 1,400$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,375$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.7 | 198 | 29.3%58 W · 140 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,334$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.44 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,334$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb566…978ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,308$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce4…374ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -52%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 42c | 1,208$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.73 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed No | 51c | 1,186$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.62 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes | 50c | 1,152$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.68 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc71…eb87backed Yes | 41c | 1,094$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 1,031$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.09 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0f29backed Yes | 37c | 1,006$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.35 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +123.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 8c | 1,004$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed No | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b84…bae0backed Yes | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc983…941abacked Yes | 51c | 999$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd996…b6c6backed Yes | 51c | 999$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55a…7a32backed No | 49c | 999$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b102backed No | 49c | 999$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f6…4fedbacked Yes | 43c | 910$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53a…0c27backed No | 57c | 910$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…ae73backed Yes | 44c | 907$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e56…6656backed No | 56c | 907$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.08 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed No | 68c | 864.7$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.29 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 38c | 859.85$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.39 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 30c | 857.52$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.1 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d8…2d9ebacked Yes | 1c | 845.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…7cffbacked Yes | 32c | 818.82$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…acfdbacked Yes | 38c | 810$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 799.18$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.48 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed No | 41c | 792.12$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.61 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 51c | 766.61$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.97 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 62c | 752.77$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 50c | 724.44$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.96 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 27c | 700$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 28c | 700$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0765…cbeabacked No | 53c | 692.31$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0efc…8e2fbacked Yes | 60c | 683.15$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.95 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 37c | 674.32$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.45 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 13c | 669.79$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 21cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…dcf0backed Yes | 63c | 650.42$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fac…574ebacked No | 24c | 631.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2239…c9c0backed Yes | 8c | 628.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…19f1backed Yes | 17c | 606.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.