TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$109,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 298 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0380…073dbacked No54c7,299$3,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,364.68520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34f7…c364backed Yes36c5,267$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,904.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No56c4,695$2,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,057.32520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x761e…b4c7backed Yes37c4,481$1,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d47…8644backed Yes40c3,790$1,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,529.011030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc59…096fbacked Yes44c3,617$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.53425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x822b…3dbfbacked Yes37c3,551$1,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No62c3,233$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-59.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes67c3,210$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No58c2,701$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.44933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-50.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe93d…0f4bbacked Yes28c2,681$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32fd…5c8bbacked No52c2,525$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No49c2,214$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.044719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcbb…2711backed Yes40c2,189$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$867.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcac2…c29bbacked Yes73c2,076$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes35c2,040$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.581844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No59c2,022$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.93250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.992254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b4e…776dbacked Yes37c1,902$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No69c1,657$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed No63c1,500$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5602100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa200…f93bbacked Yes38c1,400$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No57c1,396$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.01333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1c…1134backed Yes55c1,371$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.81366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes37c1,360$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.632015%3 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-76.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No49c1,350$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a7d…0bf1backed Yes37c1,239$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.39540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+166.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No54c1,198$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No49c1,119$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes20c1,080$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.041127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e07…6a8ebacked Yes39c1,053$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0286…eb6cbacked Yes68c1,024$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid+127.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Yes46c1,010$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.29333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9e2…42eabacked Yes69c997.65$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb19c…2467backed Yes18c953.85$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17470%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed Yes43c953.49$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.346640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4f…831ebacked Yes73c899.63$657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656.73333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x797a…7924backed Yes36c815$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No64c788.61$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-47.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No48c769.17$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…618dbacked No48c700.76$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.99580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes39c692.26$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.972119%4 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-64.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33ea…f2f0backed Yes43c677.82$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No64c675.81$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.5524258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No50c624$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec06…9178backed No29c569$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.875757.9%33 W · 24 L+10.2wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+43.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x1e25…0f29backed Yes36c563.08$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes73c537.44$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.74553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No61c519.27$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.377518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd47…000fbacked Yes55c513.97$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.591533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x032a…1cf8backed Yes35c507.35$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No55c498$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.16425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No62c494.51$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e92…1d98backed Yes39c479.09$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes34c471.59$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.06450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes35c471.01$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes45c440$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2e5…0f0ebacked Yes35c432.64$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-44%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3a9…38c7backed Yes72c416.67$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x975b…149bbacked No56c408.96$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.963100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes49c407.93$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.435655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes71c400.29$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.9913128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes36c400$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+192.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes39c384.79$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.5550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d4a…4a93backed Yes52c380.3$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04c3…9a7cbacked Yes43c371.29$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed Yes32c365.87$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.69333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No63c345$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes65c337.85$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed No64c334.57$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9331…8298backed Yes39c330.94$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd4b…d965backed No61c329.96$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No50c325.95$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-33.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b24…8702backed Yes47c317.72$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+23.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a1…35e7backed Yes33c299.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No59c289.95$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.59333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No65c283.39$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.82462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d3…76d1backed Yes40c282.02$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No75c279$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.63742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…525fbacked Yes36c273.97$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.63683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick60cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa944…8de1backed Yes37c273.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x655c…1a00backed No47c267.27$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8256…8785backed Yes38c263.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcccc…05b2backed Yes76c262$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.12580%4 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb7d5…0789backed No62c258.64$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d9c…0803backed Yes39c257.48$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes46c256$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No43c251.68$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.33333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39b4…fc14backed No44c250$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1401100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No65c243$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.051770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88ce…3a36backed Yes38c242.75$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.840%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x78f4…6daabacked Yes56c238.54$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No41c238.06$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+20.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked No58c231.71$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.292100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+113.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed No26c229.88$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.11580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+162%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes38c225$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.232825%7 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9b0…a817backed Yes33c224.95$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66ec…0db1backed Yes36c220$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x758b…0a1cbacked No79c214.25$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.913050%15 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.