TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$154,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$162,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $154,115 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88a1…618dbacked Yes58c26,609$15,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,233.66580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+41.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x07a7…8d33backed No39c14,733$5,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,806.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8faa…deb5backed Yes63c8,283$5,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,040.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No49c8,137$3,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,952.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No44c7,241$3,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,209.53520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes61c5,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.982254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda40…4a27backed No38c4,272$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36b6…9adbbacked Yes63c4,002$2,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,499.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No37c3,604$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-59.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No41c3,113$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.267518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c5f…a235backed No75c2,974$2,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,230.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc427…6f4dbacked No35c2,784$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.161127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No41c2,706$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.8933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-50.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec5…511fbacked No38c2,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed Yes61c2,500$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$974.99333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No46c2,262$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.414719.1%9 W · 38 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06ab…ee5cbacked Yes73c2,089$1,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.64475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9765…436bbacked Yes64c1,915$1,223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes39c1,880$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+113.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb31e…c120backed Yes61c1,859$1,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No48c1,801$868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.4930837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x822b…3dbfbacked No36c1,789$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6d2…80dcbacked Yes52c1,785$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No33c1,662$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.15540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51c3…cc88backed Yes38c1,658$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+164.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x091c…81fdbacked No43c1,646$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Yes28c1,557$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.72333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No42c1,510$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.26333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-41.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05bb…9acabacked Yes33c1,397$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.08475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+101%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa380…62a4backed Yes54c1,374$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes60c1,342$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.49475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick36cpaid+192.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x761e…b4c7backed No38c1,272$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes59c1,262$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.282462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes48c1,225$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.41844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+36.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a89…a4d6backed No68c1,221$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.991233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-46.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No47c1,188$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.47250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dd9…1024backed Yes66c1,153$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No38c1,118$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-60%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad55…6e5cbacked Yes33c1,111$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.07250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+52.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b24…8702backed Yes40c1,078$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+23.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe7ae…17bebacked Yes63c1,012$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3701926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e6d…a2a1backed Yes48c972.58$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.39911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-77%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes69c949.81$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcbb…2711backed No39c863.36$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.7130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x731c…8331backed No48c833.13$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No39c821.9$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-47.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No55c773.69$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No46c765.81$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04ef…b8aebacked Yes63c676.35$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.97333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a86…f8e8backed Yes67c670.03$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.831353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb19c…2467backed No51c655$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.9570%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No58c648$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.54933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-54.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf6f6…0e74backed No39c645.29$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes61c606$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.341770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No42c598.21$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.632015%3 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-76.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3749…4094backed No47c585.97$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.0920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No37c584.07$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.655563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf92c…87f7backed Yes61c577.57$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.252100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+154.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No37c572.1$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.48333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No50c571$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.22333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c39…f4f2backed No46c570$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No48c564.93$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes32c550$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3731241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick24cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed Yes24c535.42$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.92580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+162%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef13…bd5cbacked No36c517.76$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No33c510$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1602330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No44c498$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.35425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes39c471.44$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.733831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes61c459.04$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.7811840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdad7…005abacked Yes49c440$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.19333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes80c427.93$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.393762.2%23 W · 14 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes65c427$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.451050%5 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x331f…6e59backed No25c402.01$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…149bbacked Yes55c400.67$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6795…c55dbacked Yes67c400$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefc…9408backed No6c400$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8509…dee2backed Yes68c399.99$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes58c397.33$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked No64c397.2$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.932832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd74…47c5backed No34c382.94$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9b0…a817backed No39c368.08$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9901…6046backed Yes56c367.81$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.55837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d3…76d1backed No40c360.45$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes57c356.64$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…2626backed Yes30c352$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+232.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked Yes30c337.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.61145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb732…16e6backed Yes58c333.87$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6449…e1d4backed No54c332.2$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-54.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes63c324.61$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.241070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+101%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb91b…29a7backed No36c314.55$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.96955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2695…ed4dbacked Yes64c311.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb82…0318backed Yes60c310$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6102…702cbacked No39c310$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.9616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-40.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa36…7d42backed No36c283.04$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No54c277.84$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdd…8370backed No43c275$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.256640.9%27 W · 39 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99ea…0882backed No68c274.09$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-85%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd47…000fbacked Yes60c269.77$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.891533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.