Ukraine · resolved market
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8698f69b12ddb5f251251abf7b7973c6578a6d2b69f35bb5c35cbe1a245afe79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $197,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb19c…2467backed Yes | 2c | 19,953$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…6f4dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,597$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8b…e92cbacked Yes | 2c | 8,619$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x761e…b4c7backed Yes | 2c | 8,183$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c6…e5c2backed Yes | 2c | 7,234$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…9a7cbacked Yes | 2c | 6,406$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…9f9fbacked Yes | 1c | 6,204$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x323c…b85fbacked Yes | 3c | 5,723$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 2c | 5,627$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2a…2f33backed Yes | 2c | 5,313$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…fa9cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,204$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…2782backed Yes | 2c | 5,123$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc59…096fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,933$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…284fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,596$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…81fdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,448$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28b…a572backed Yes | 2c | 3,419$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,363$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes | 1c | 3,172$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…21cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,835$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ea…0882backed Yes | 3c | 2,798$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -85%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,668$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f34…3cb7backed Yes | 2c | 2,599$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 2c | 2,039$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9589…39b0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…1cf8backed Yes | 4c | 1,965$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79f5…5a3ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,819$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14b…eed5backed Yes | 2c | 1,625$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Yes | 2c | 1,625$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…3191backed Yes | 1c | 1,570$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65dc…adedbacked Yes | 3c | 1,519$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…327bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,492$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…7a6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,440$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…0caebacked Yes | 2c | 1,140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,121$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 4cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…a4d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,093$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3012…5237backed Yes | 1c | 1,079$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…aa99backed Yes | 3c | 1,056$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +14.4wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9426…057fbacked Yes | 2c | 978.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe974…a571backed Yes | 2c | 969.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 899.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 4cpaid | +158.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…a958backed Yes | 2c | 881.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 1c | 845.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 2c | 774.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 2c | 714.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…9f9cbacked Yes | 2c | 650.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7f…4500backed Yes | 2c | 602.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 554.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…8908backed Yes | 2c | 441.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…37a2backed Yes | 2c | 440.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdad7…005abacked Yes | 2c | 440$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…b68abacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…46d0backed Yes | 3c | 385.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?this page
- Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?Yes won
- Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.