TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,597,612
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,379,549

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,597,612 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 412 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2cfb…6d49backed Yes3c184,252$6,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,357.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed Yes2c126,349$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,493.25267.7%2 W · 24 L-4.5wins-0.17per pick25cpaid-86.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeaf6…a3eabacked Yes10c84,369$8,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,605.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa053…5c92backed Yes6c83,831$4,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,614.27425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-66.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…5b1fbacked Yes4c74,074$2,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,724.09911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-83.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes3c57,575$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.35468.7%4 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid+96.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes3c47,678$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,388.143026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick18cpaid-13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1de1…6b5abacked Yes4c45,312$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes3c35,464$948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.58333%1 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-87.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes3c27,411$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$772.6150%0 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c8e…8a65backed Yes3c25,382$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-69.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c24,375$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454.9622927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4634…eca5backed Yes4c23,605$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda00…64e3backed Yes2c21,133$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.36333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-51%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked Yes6c20,840$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.527723.4%18 W · 59 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2405…2551backed Yes4c18,891$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ad3…44f9backed Yes6c18,649$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes2c18,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.92742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.24per pick19cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes3c17,239$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.114835.8%53 W · 95 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f79…1608backed Yes4c16,560$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-24.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes7c15,609$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes3c15,000$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.021910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc903…ed01backed Yes3c14,298$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.191050%5 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+36.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes3c14,053$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.39283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-93.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd952…15b5backed Yes2c13,813$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.74425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-68.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6447…69b7backed Yes3c13,651$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf901…2264backed Yes2c13,082$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001833.3%6 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-19.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes2c12,277$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.76561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes6c12,050$764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.658140.7%33 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c11…eadbbacked Yes3c12,023$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes3c12,000$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-53.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes2c11,859$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.97425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db1…8c66backed Yes2c11,600$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb42f…e60cbacked Yes9c11,110$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fe…cf16backed Yes2c10,791$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb22…c575backed Yes3c10,618$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b41…82b7backed Yes5c10,455$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d13…8439backed Yes2c10,171$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f97…5711backed Yes9c10,000$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9461216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be2…9919backed Yes3c10,000$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.251526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbbb…4433backed Yes4c9,472$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…23dfbacked Yes3c9,209$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.68119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-50.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23f8…f18ebacked Yes6c8,642$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa99e…d2edbacked Yes3c8,444$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b08…96a0backed Yes2c7,957$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcd2…0eacbacked Yes4c7,385$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300140%0 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e47…ecf7backed Yes2c7,020$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.441643.8%7 W · 9 L+4.0wins+0.25per pick19cpaid+37.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4bbc…bf46backed Yes3c7,000$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bda…edd3backed Yes3c6,886$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.481315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-60%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes2c6,773$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.81385.3%2 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-91.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3f…da87backed Yes3c6,666$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc33…d2f0backed Yes3c6,639$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid-79.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ef…c75bbacked Yes3c6,609$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.651717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+116.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c6,608$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.65619.6%11 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes3c6,582$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.86329.4%3 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc00…0115backed Yes5c6,450$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeac2…6485backed Yes0c6,414$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb58…8729backed Yes11c6,244$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+199.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f0a…00adbacked Yes4c6,106$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.55per pick11cpaid+432.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x552c…0d31backed Yes2c5,922$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Yes3c5,877$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.342817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc9e…eda3backed Yes4c5,770$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e50…7a6bbacked Yes3c5,769$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-40.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa2ae…c97abacked Yes3c5,668$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2df…2f79backed Yes3c5,506$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-60.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff3c…c60ebacked Yes2c5,462$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes2c5,300$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-40.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes6c5,273$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.494615.2%7 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0b…29e9backed Yes6c5,189$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-64%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe574…22f9backed Yes3c5,150$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.951625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a5…729bbacked Yes5c4,926$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf14…6b86backed Yes3c4,744$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb600…35a1backed Yes3c4,728$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.4310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes3c4,500$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1285139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa94d…f048backed Yes4c4,427$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes3c4,404$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.95185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-77%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcacb…7cf1backed Yes3c4,265$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c4,250$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.12533.8%2 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+41.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf06…1402backed Yes3c4,198$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6fd…217ebacked Yes2c4,167$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed Yes4c4,128$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes6c4,096$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.52425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-59.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c08…dd36backed Yes2c4,084$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes3c3,978$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick33cpaid+33%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes5c3,948$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1036…7defbacked Yes3c3,946$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1017…19a1backed Yes3c3,862$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8945…82a9backed Yes3c3,834$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes6c3,765$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.717234.7%25 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081b…dac7backed Yes3c3,676$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes3c3,600$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.83839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x996f…fb2cbacked Yes3c3,588$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…e040backed Yes2c3,541$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb83d…8a0cbacked Yes3c3,532$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a56…a644backed Yes3c3,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-83.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc2…b496backed Yes3c3,497$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4260%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Yes3c3,421$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.5911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick4cpaid-60.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7cc…0187backed Yes3c3,394$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+111%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6720…409ebacked Yes3c3,349$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e88…8b12backed Yes3c3,335$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.