Music · resolved market
Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54a7ccadce22f5dcd774ef26ede3ee6b50b0c7e0b5d1ad0be7ba98780f897b51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,613,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,189,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,613,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 471,329$1,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.5 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…b64dbacked Yes | 0c | 394,058$1,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.8 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 0c | 268,800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.74 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 0c | 168,572$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.56 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa699…785fbacked Yes | 0c | 156,256$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.69 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes | 0c | 118,486$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.59 | 56 | 1.8%1 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 116,145$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.5 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 108,660$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.86 | 229 | 27.9%64 W · 165 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes | 0c | 105,986$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.96 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ade…ff49backed Yes | 0c | 70,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes | 0c | 49,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 0c | 44,699$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes | 0c | 40,176$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -91.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d85…be2ebacked Yes | 0c | 36,385$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 28,998$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.86 | 68 | 0%0 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…5051backed Yes | 0c | 28,980$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…28ecbacked Yes | 0c | 24,570$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…2852backed Yes | 0c | 24,478$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1f…d09bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,254$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 0c | 17,100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 15,210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc657…9f83backed Yes | 0c | 13,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 0c | 11,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x111b…bad9backed Yes | 0c | 11,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9520…fa6ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,616$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…43ddbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…1f8abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…a343backed Yes | 0c | 7,908$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f90…61febacked Yes | 0c | 7,800$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c20…9e4fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,653$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe5…ed49backed Yes | 0c | 7,464$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec4…6219backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…0634backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc5…9354backed Yes | 0c | 5,243$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf27…5f0fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,198$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f9…43cabacked Yes | 1c | 5,058$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…cf08backed Yes | 0c | 5,044$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239c…ba96backed Yes | 0c | 5,006$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5f…a693backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d72…f7ffbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…1e04backed Yes | 0c | 4,947$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6d…f860backed Yes | 1c | 4,858$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd06…4aa5backed Yes | 0c | 4,427$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7df…f73bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +101%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…7acdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,124$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…9332backed Yes | 0c | 3,883$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…e4b0backed Yes | 0c | 3,860$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…2ed5backed Yes | 0c | 3,270$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 11cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…d0efbacked Yes | 0c | 2,980$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 1c | 2,968$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234f…0d2bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,761$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c35…d190backed Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca0…026abacked Yes | 1c | 2,509$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…487cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b33…7563backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…ef47backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8b…ac00backed Yes | 1c | 2,026$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…20d7backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ff…fc59backed Yes | 1c | 1,649$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffb…7679backed Yes | 2c | 500.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iceland win Eurovision 2025?this page
- Will Albania win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Armenia win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Australia win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?Yes won
- Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Finland win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will France win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Germany win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Greece win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Israel win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Italy win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Latvia win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Malta win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Norway win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Poland win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will San Marino win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Serbia win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Spain win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025?No won
- Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.