TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Germany win Eurovision 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,660,801
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$705,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,660,801 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 197 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed Yes1c186,112$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992.7422927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes1c85,090$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.18333%1 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-87.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8d61…12f6backed Yes1c73,057$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes1c65,328$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.3180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b78…b81bbacked Yes1c64,676$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.0370%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes1c47,156$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.05230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x310d…b64dbacked Yes1c46,489$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.4230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes1c38,277$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.83561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad73…a795backed Yes2c37,220$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.76520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc657…9f83backed Yes1c31,469$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.5930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes0c30,900$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-93.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes1c29,785$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes1c24,664$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes1c20,140$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.985139.2%20 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b9…cc71backed Yes1c20,025$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes1c18,954$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.77267.7%2 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.20per pick28cpaid-88.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x04b6…197dbacked Yes1c17,026$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f31…cd6fbacked Yes1c14,749$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick9cpaid+93.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c13,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52370%0 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5516…cbf4backed Yes1c12,759$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c8c…f9cdbacked Yes1c11,818$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes1c11,206$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-91.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfe82…5c81backed Yes1c10,348$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.229333.3%31 W · 62 L+10.8wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+76%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3b06…98cebacked Yes1c10,163$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6650%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes1c10,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.97425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes1c10,000$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.96330%0 W · 33 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85d…15eabacked Yes1c10,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb297…94d6backed Yes0c9,788$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf728…2283backed Yes1c9,388$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2732…3085backed Yes2c8,711$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-53.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x37e9…3a28backed Yes1c8,259$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick12cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9337…9dd3backed Yes1c7,205$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8590%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f5…af66backed Yes1c7,196$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ce…db56backed Yes2c7,032$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f5…a2ddbacked Yes1c6,860$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbe…eec1backed Yes1c6,698$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3761…6658backed Yes1c6,665$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick27cpaid+84.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53c6…2f05backed Yes1c6,571$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes1c6,175$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.71385.3%2 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-91.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9c9…8a0fbacked Yes2c5,943$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed Yes1c5,535$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.353839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ebd…d7fabacked Yes1c5,335$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c5,186$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14fd…e076backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3336…f823backed Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e8…c939backed Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e9…f9bebacked Yes1c4,646$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.48190%0 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfc…1ab3backed Yes1c4,453$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb66b…9398backed Yes0c4,418$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3a5…0825backed Yes1c4,116$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-64.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cea…87e8backed Yes0c4,075$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa83…5599backed Yes1c4,043$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.34425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-54.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0826…0da0backed Yes1c4,040$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c4,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262615.4%4 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-40.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c8b…0108backed Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x15dd…8b3fbacked Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a11…ea12backed Yes0c3,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x592a…59cbbacked Yes1c3,710$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ddd…60edbacked Yes1c3,700$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes2c3,661$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.91742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+53.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa39…8519backed Yes1c3,656$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes4c3,604$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7b…a8f4backed Yes1c3,584$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9797…c24dbacked Yes1c3,570$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c29…04ddbacked Yes1c3,533$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…764bbacked Yes1c3,500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd12e…971fbacked Yes1c3,493$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabad…437fbacked Yes1c3,393$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011a…4c0fbacked Yes1c3,378$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x791a…1bb4backed Yes2c3,341$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcad3…0bf5backed Yes1c3,300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.690%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x081b…dac7backed Yes1c3,250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c3,250$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x137d…8358backed Yes1c3,155$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick5cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0da8…5204backed Yes1c3,134$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc8…5fb4backed Yes2c3,127$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-69.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e4…3b89backed Yes1c3,125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes1c3,121$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.971910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-82%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes0c3,110$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ef…1e04backed Yes1c3,100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9100%0 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes1c3,038$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.23119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-60.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad4…7eafbacked Yes2c3,001$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+91.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fbf…8061backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x444d…d333backed Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d8f…bcebbacked Yes1c2,833$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fdb…e8b3backed Yes0c2,792$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.78520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f3…9cadbacked Yes1c2,621$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2009…3e44backed Yes0c2,620$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x898a…cd88backed Yes1c2,580$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ae7…6cd4backed Yes1c2,526$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed Yes1c2,509$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.051010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba13…a813backed Yes1c2,507$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f3…3622backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1278…1033backed Yes1c2,500$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2789…96a2backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ef…c75bbacked Yes1c2,429$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+116.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b5f…cf61backed Yes1c2,398$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f05…16e0backed Yes1c2,285$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.