TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Portugal win Eurovision 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,153,433
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,307,503

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,153,433 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c408,426$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,126.8580%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes0c362,296$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.2822927.9%64 W · 165 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c245,181$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.36362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes0c111,439$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.88230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4196…1ec4backed Yes0c93,796$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c73,839$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.52280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c61,859$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.44370%0 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes0c57,002$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.03333%1 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-87.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes0c55,678$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.25283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-93.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6743…4ccbbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c44,500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x310d…b64dbacked Yes0c42,951$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.56230%0 W · 23 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes0c40,113$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.56385.3%2 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-91.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes0c37,411$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-91.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0184…1c3fbacked Yes0c36,288$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes0c22,970$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.13234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-87.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7df…f73bbacked Yes1c21,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+101%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc903…ed01backed Yes0c20,855$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+36.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xce7b…864ebacked Yes0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd730…5a16backed Yes0c19,073$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c19,029$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.511478.2%12 W · 135 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d48…2852backed Yes0c18,849$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb91…5dd1backed Yes1c18,146$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c14,307$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.05680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaac…3477backed Yes0c12,670$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4732…2f88backed Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes0c12,500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7824…ae0fbacked Yes0c11,637$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fd4…9087backed Yes0c11,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f2…8455backed Yes0c10,516$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c4d…0b9abacked Yes1c10,239$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60825%2 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20330%0 W · 33 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0911…120cbacked Yes0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65ce…67f4backed Yes0c8,339$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+77.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c8,269$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54219.5%2 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick3cpaid-63.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f5f…a693backed Yes0c8,163$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6190%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8acb…de36backed Yes0c8,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a18…e24cbacked Yes0c6,767$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d36…3cbdbacked Yes0c6,550$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f97…5711backed Yes4c6,000$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2521216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec2…7302backed Yes0c5,436$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f67…43ddbacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb1…3020backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9337…9dd3backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07e8…c939backed Yes0c5,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb351…20d1backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fc…6a77backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6f1…42c0backed Yes0c4,867$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11ac…c8bebacked Yes0c4,633$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5601…077bbacked Yes0c4,072$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes0c4,050$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.151717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-62.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa762…33b0backed Yes1c3,952$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3177…380ebacked Yes0c3,942$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ac…c8fcbacked Yes2c3,694$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.852853.6%15 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xecbb…31f6backed Yes0c3,691$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5955…70d5backed Yes1c3,660$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9cc…04b4backed Yes4c3,545$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b3c…da3ebacked Yes0c3,540$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e1…d1bcbacked Yes0c3,375$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x677d…ae46backed Yes1c3,340$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c98…47fcbacked Yes1c3,214$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c65…cef5backed Yes0c3,178$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+93.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x722c…515fbacked Yes0c3,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c2,981$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2324732%79 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41c9…5ce6backed Yes0c2,915$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf956…fb2dbacked Yes1c2,833$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaabc…9844backed Yes0c2,770$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee40…ede2backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0982…5deabacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-85.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc1f9…e5f0backed Yes1c2,418$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01f7…83edbacked Yes1c2,400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c85…9e34backed Yes0c2,343$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.03263.8%1 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-94.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a3…20d7backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x920c…3c0ebacked Yes1c1,833$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c1,554$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.23429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes2c1,238$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.394615.2%7 W · 39 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-43.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes2c1,145$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2315119.2%29 W · 122 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+48.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5007…b0d6backed Yes1c1,124$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00b4…d144backed Yes5c1,041$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes2c979.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5902…59fabacked Yes1c723.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes3c669.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.076533.8%22 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes4c577.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.482213.6%3 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+101.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…e371backed Yes5c551.22$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb2d…27e6backed Yes6c361.5$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc475…3a39backed Yes5c347.14$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3130…f2cbbacked Yes5c267$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cce…e92ebacked Yes5c260.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.