TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Music · resolved market

Will Croatia win Eurovision 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,631,021
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,066,219

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,631,021 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Music
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c503,006$1,463 inLost-$1,462.63362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick1cpaid-91.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c397,482$397 inLost-$397.4840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes0c153,619$154 inLost-$153.62230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ef…c75bbacked Yes0c128,505$245 inLost-$245.111717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick6cpaid+116.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19c1…708fbacked Yes0c50,336$151 inLost-$151.0140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c48,036$123 inLost-$123.26370%0 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f1c1backed Yes0c43,463$100 inLost-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-91.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes0c21,111$52 inLost-$52.221717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-62.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9abd…f67bbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$20561.8%1 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes0c16,933$49 inLost-$48.87280%0 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff89…3177backed Yes0c15,500$31 inLost-$3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes0c15,148$15 inLost-$15.15333%1 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-87.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb3fa…4249backed Yes0c13,100$26 inLost-$26.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes0c12,369$45 inLost-$44.78254%1 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x111b…bad9backed Yes0c11,111$11 inLost-$11.1150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked Yes0c10,034$20 inLost-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick14cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cdf…45cebacked Yes1c10,001$75 inLost-$74.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Yes0c10,000$30 inLost-$30234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-87.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc472…ced9backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost-$4030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$10330%0 W · 33 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c9,721$36 inLost-$35.64680%0 W · 68 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x528f…84b2backed Yes0c8,000$16 inLost-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da5…f32fbacked Yes0c7,000$14 inLost-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3f9…3649backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes1c5,000$30 inLost-$306628.8%19 W · 47 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79ff…fc59backed Yes0c2,734$12 inLost-$11.84220%0 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3260…5cb9backed Yes0c2,520$10 inLost-$10.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…20d7backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$101711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0982…5deabacked Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$10263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-85.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfbe5…ed49backed Yes1c2,000$12 inLost-$1280%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ffb…7679backed Yes2c500.5$10 inLost-$1050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.