Fifa International · resolved market
Will Luxembourg win on 2025-10-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f2359162db57e6970a27d31261f36e4437b84e69f0724fdc05e45f06028dc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 9c | 6,000$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.44 | 123 | 10.6%13 W · 110 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 8c | 3,050$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,988$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 9c | 2,278$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.3 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,938$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.04 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…380dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,442$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed Yes | 8c | 1,243$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.41 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,094$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 86 | 31.4%27 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 8c | 909.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 24cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40f…a5b1backed Yes | 8c | 450.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 7c | 400.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 203 | 22.7%46 W · 157 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 369.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…84eebacked Yes | 9c | 242.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 10c | 167.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x350d…b898backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd605…0653backed Yes | 17c | 139.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…213abacked Yes | 8c | 138$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8586…f25dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…a664backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf88…8280backed Yes | 14c | 87.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luxembourg win on 2025-10-13?this page
- Will Slovakia vs. Luxembourg end in a draw?No won
- Will Slovakia win on 2025-10-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.