Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52b5af4bbd7d3621ab76a5245a05a63f30add001e1eb179d7dc1b92c760b5bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 65c | 1,500$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.96 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 35c | 1,091$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.2 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x226d…f49ebacked No | 32c | 506.42$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed Yes | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 63c | 336.25$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.8 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 52c | 326.49$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…9c77backed No | 31c | 320.01$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.01 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85a2…632cbacked No | 37c | 310.24$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +174%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 43c | 301.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.71 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed Yes | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 35c | 288.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.57 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…5289backed No | 35c | 287.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 72c | 253.57$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.57 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 32c | 230.23$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.36 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…e1c7backed No | 44c | 225.34$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1932…4e5abacked Yes | 61c | 225$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…e238backed Yes | 63c | 161.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4921backed Yes | 75c | 160.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 70c | 143.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 29c | 137.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 15c | 123.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf812…494bbacked No | 39c | 116$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 55c | 105.69$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 64c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…04f3backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed Yes | 69c | 99.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 58c | 98.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 37c | 91.03$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 67c | 81.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.54 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 17c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…f481backed No | 37c | 78.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…37dabacked Yes | 63c | 76.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 71c | 73.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed No | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +190.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…a664backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe415…db17backed No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…b93bbacked Yes | 69c | 44.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 37c | 39.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 38c | 39.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9f…e209backed Yes | 70c | 34.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…730bbacked Yes | 70c | 33.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…01d3backed Yes | 59c | 31.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7992…805cbacked Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b889backed Yes | 71c | 28.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x898e…d82cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed No | 43c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ab…9aa1backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…915ebacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a31…1bebbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 57c | 19.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.