Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9f018c055fc5143896a77b190333b20b0ab9fad2709ebdd2342741c2b6797d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 20c | 2,012$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.48 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65f…a749backed No | 79c | 1,734$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 17c | 1,347$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.62 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 15c | 858.59$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.85 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 755.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 13c | 699.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed Yes | 23c | 643.65$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.97 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe504…70efbacked Yes | 32c | 562.32$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 20c | 558.54$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 190 | 26.3%50 W · 140 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361d…f2d9backed No | 76c | 381$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 15c | 346.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 21c | 339.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 28c | 261.17$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7604…32cbbacked No | 80c | 247.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d31…2f85backed Yes | 27c | 247.5$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4003…5073backed Yes | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked No | 76c | 240$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0be3…b664backed Yes | 5c | 215.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410c…b808backed Yes | 24c | 209.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…e147backed Yes | 71c | 200$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70f2…e5b6backed No | 79c | 152.49$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 23c | 149.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…5f28backed No | 74c | 148.64$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0c…711bbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff07…439abacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b37…9b74backed No | 75c | 99.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked No | 79c | 93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 19c | 85.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…7f72backed No | 77c | 78.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x053e…6422backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7004…50d2backed No | 78c | 65.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 70c | 61.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d87…7879backed Yes | 24c | 61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…bd98backed No | 78c | 54.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x248c…5834backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e74…1165backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…ed11backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…e86abacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…219dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0815…d0ddbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 57cpaid | +105.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x079c…5a65backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…5714backed No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…4a10backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 74c | 14.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0545…dcdcbacked No | 80c | 14.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?this page
- Will Powell say "China" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Downbeat" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Employment / Unemployment" 20+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Obvious" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Pandemic" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Recession" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Spike" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?No won
- Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?Yes won
- Will Powell say "Uncertainty" 7+ times during July Press Conference?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.