TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x377c…4a10

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
88
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 53 out of 100; worst Tweets at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT3534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+684.3%+$87.25
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.88
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.15
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.6
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.05
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.05
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$30.24
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+37%+$3.74
Will Newcastle United vs. Barcelona end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+32.6%+$3.73
Will PSG beat Chelsea?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.18
Manchester City vs. Al Hilal: 3+ Goals Scored?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$5.79
PSG vs. Inter Miami: 4+ Goals Scored?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+94.2%+$14.55
Will Internazionale win Group E at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+46.5%+$31.74
Will Real Madrid beat Pachuca?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$7.8
Will Juventus beat Wydad AC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$7.2
Will Inter Milan beat Urawa Red Diamonds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+37%+$8.1
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Mamelodi Sundowns?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$9.6
Will Chelsea win Group D at the FIFA Club World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.48
Will Chelsea beat Flamengo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$175.84
Will Real Madrid beat Al Hilal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.41
Will Inter Milan beat Monterrey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$72
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Fluminense?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Benfica beat Boca Juniors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+46%+$5.61
West Ham United FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+28.2%+$3.3
Burnley FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+38.9%+$4.59
Will Arsenal vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+33.5%+$8.52
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,877Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,876.85
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-05-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.56
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$39
Will Newcastle win on 2025-05-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$19.09
Will Brentford win on 2025-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$14.06
Newcastle United wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$64.59
Will Liverpool win on 2025-04-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$27.5
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$153.74
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$27.22
Will Tottenham win on 2025-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+38.9%+$14
Will Leicester vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$15
All 17 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2025, EST1414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$14
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+26.6%+$15.87
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$19.6
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 20-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$55.79
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+664%+$221.11
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST-100%-$25.44
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$22.95
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$44.92
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$46.75
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$59.5
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$68
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Nov 29-Dec 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST-100%-$146.07
All 14 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Senegal vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$13.83
Senegal vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$15.74
Will Nigeria win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+114.6%+$13.62
All 3 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pacers vs. Thunderbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.25
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$13
Pacers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$137.2
All 3 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ethereum all time high by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$30.03
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+203%+$66.21
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+32.2%+$3.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+31%+$3.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
'Mufasa' vs. 'Sonic 3' opening weekend box office?backed Mufasa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$170.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump mentions his memecoin in inaugural address?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.