Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc71f037e41c5c017aad50ea1d9d6eaff0698a1713e19b4c0457040e47348933
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 9c | 13,465$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150.52 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 22c | 11,748$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.09 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 13c | 8,419$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.43 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 6c | 8,363$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 7c | 8,355$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.34 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 75c | 6,548$4,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 10c | 4,764$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.56 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 15c | 2,699$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 9c | 2,089$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 9c | 2,025$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.44 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…ff74backed Yes | 37c | 1,832$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.14 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,768$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.76 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 7c | 1,719$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.72 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 3c | 1,684$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 56c | 1,670$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.88 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 28c | 1,583$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.46 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,427$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 25c | 1,373$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.97 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 5c | 1,362$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.53 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,323$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,141$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,028$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 15c | 1,004$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 11c | 1,004$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.66 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 15c | 848.09$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.11 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 15c | 767.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.2 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 3c | 755.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 35c | 752.1$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 18c | 738.89$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 36c | 698.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 7c | 696.73$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 5c | 643.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…511abacked Yes | 45c | 617.38$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db4…487abacked Yes | 15c | 596.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…9628backed Yes | 29c | 569.97$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 10c | 560$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed Yes | 30c | 549.75$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.35 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…bbfabacked No | 71c | 547.19$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 40c | 474.67$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.92 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 13c | 467.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 20c | 465.43$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1f…6f69backed Yes | 24c | 449.9$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 20c | 435.88$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 71c | 430.38$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.32 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 379.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 9c | 373$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…7dd8backed Yes | 20c | 372.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acf…f67bbacked Yes | 56c | 370.99$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.01 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…c5f5backed Yes | 43c | 361.2$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…7d06backed Yes | 5c | 329.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 42c | 286.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…824ebacked Yes | 13c | 272.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 38c | 270.49$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.86 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 12c | 269.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 18c | 256.09$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Yes | 27c | 255.62$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…81e5backed Yes | 4c | 233$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcad9…6299backed Yes | 15c | 232.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 35c | 223.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…7127backed Yes | 9c | 221$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 40c | 215.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…217fbacked Yes | 25c | 201.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…91d4backed Yes | 44c | 200.04$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 56c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…4d83backed Yes | 21c | 200$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 44c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked No | 60c | 199.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 36c | 196.47$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 70c | 187$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Yes | 25c | 180$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc1…6362backed Yes | 59c | 169.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…739fbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…3096backed Yes | 43c | 149.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…971cbacked Yes | 20c | 146.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 12c | 131.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 15c | 130$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…e531backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…4a10backed Yes | 20c | 117.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4438backed Yes | 19c | 115.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…8df5backed Yes | 10c | 114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 70c | 100.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20cf…ee56backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fed…3068backed Yes | 34c | 89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 34c | 85.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…c2e6backed Yes | 24c | 85.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1152…931fbacked Yes | 17c | 79.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…0a61backed No | 80c | 79.12$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9b…2e4bbacked Yes | 14c | 71.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…7ec3backed Yes | 33c | 65.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc947…0e21backed Yes | 20c | 59.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…0349backed Yes | 20c | 53.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e0…8afabacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…8d5fbacked Yes | 28c | 49.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 6-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.