Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d6c08f534fab785005bef1e68c3d52057a386003428ac9d225c9df17959d7e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $157,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 20c | 16,700$3,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,313.15 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 13c | 12,021$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,504 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 14c | 9,358$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,011.46 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 77c | 7,966$6,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.76 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 40c | 5,110$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,063.76 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 56c | 4,237$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,868.2 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 70c | 2,916$2,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.26 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 0c | 2,730$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…ff74backed Yes | 51c | 2,031$1,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…bbfabacked Yes | 23c | 1,920$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccab…cb62backed Yes | 47c | 1,915$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 42c | 1,913$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.52 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.76 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 19c | 1,316$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,067.93 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,267$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.65 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 60c | 1,213$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.86 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 19c | 1,167$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.93 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 23c | 1,122$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.73 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed No | 30c | 1,092$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.18 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 28c | 1,066$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.34 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 28c | 1,016$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.73 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.04 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 62c | 989.49$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.05 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3749…bacbbacked Yes | 59c | 986.85$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 10c | 948.51$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.13 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…5377backed Yes | 11c | 940.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 48c | 916.24$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.72 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 20c | 786.66$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.33 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…0644backed Yes | 61c | 786.37$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 11c | 760.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.23 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…511abacked Yes | 43c | 759.69$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 757.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.52 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 26c | 737.57$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…4688backed Yes | 25c | 646.92$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x483e…2d6bbacked Yes | 68c | 608.81$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 63c | 601.33$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.73 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 54c | 571.8$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.9 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 38c | 549.99$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.5 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…8d5fbacked Yes | 51c | 546.63$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.36 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 14c | 543.77$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.8 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…9628backed Yes | 54c | 527.55$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 14c | 518.71$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.71 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9037…d5efbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 68c | 461.09$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.93 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed No | 36c | 447.71$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.31 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 11c | 440$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.99 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 62c | 436.81$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 79c | 424.23$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 49c | 410.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.54 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 51c | 391.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.59 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 58c | 378.22$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.01 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…b5bcbacked No | 74c | 377.81$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 79c | 355.06$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 50c | 352$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.52 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cd…c060backed Yes | 78c | 343.34$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963d…7dd8backed Yes | 48c | 308.26$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…f5d6backed Yes | 14c | 301.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +600.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 30c | 300$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…c841backed Yes | 32c | 292.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 39c | 288.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.54 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 261.02$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.93 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 10c | 258.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.05 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked Yes | 11c | 250$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 59c | 215.76$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 73c | 214.27$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.29 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 63c | 213.28$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 5c | 208.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.75 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 10c | 202.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.1 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 51c | 200$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5c…5b0fbacked No | 38c | 198.39$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…8df5backed Yes | 27c | 195.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 38c | 189.43$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.43 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 47c | 189.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.34 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b39…545bbacked No | 34c | 186.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 44c | 185.05$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…824ebacked Yes | 10c | 178.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1152…931fbacked Yes | 75c | 163.29$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…15d7backed Yes | 67c | 159.09$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 30c | 156.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.5 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 22c | 147.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.24 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…2284backed Yes | 62c | 144.53$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…6422backed Yes | 40c | 138.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x323f…1504backed Yes | 67c | 138.31$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…4eb5backed Yes | 78c | 138.18$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 12c | 138.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 76c | 134.63$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…7127backed Yes | 62c | 134.33$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1925…91d4backed Yes | 25c | 131.51$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…6b77backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffde…e531backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…c5f5backed No | 76c | 117.77$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 17c | 117.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…6203backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…02bbbacked No | 48c | 104.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 6-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.