Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 6-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5c74fa6e2d18c356ebe9494669ef7297e4432bd120a1a554c584cfc5125f4e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3dc…54dcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 12c | 4,001$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.28 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 2,450$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed Yes | 2c | 2,224$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,067$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 16c | 2,040$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.49 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,708$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.49 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 13c | 1,501$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…9628backed Yes | 20c | 1,279$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 15c | 1,183$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.57 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 19c | 1,151$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ca…bf23backed Yes | 21c | 999.15$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 3c | 974.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 16c | 836.53$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…8508backed Yes | 14c | 765.47$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 17c | 627.88$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.85 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 9c | 600$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…ff2bbacked Yes | 2c | 583$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 17c | 576.2$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.18 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 15c | 547.34$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.53 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 15c | 506.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.14 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…4d83backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 12c | 500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…81e5backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 12c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae1…7d48backed Yes | 10c | 490.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…4a10backed Yes | 14c | 425$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…155ebacked Yes | 3c | 420.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 12c | 420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 18c | 415.36$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…53d3backed Yes | 3c | 407.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…8df5backed Yes | 14c | 407.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…9c10backed Yes | 7c | 381.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 10c | 380$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…0994backed Yes | 14c | 355.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf59…fefdbacked Yes | 9c | 350$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed No | 77c | 347.83$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…3156backed Yes | 14c | 324$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1152…931fbacked Yes | 11c | 319.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 9c | 304.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked Yes | 9c | 277.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeead…0199backed Yes | 16c | 264.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 12c | 263.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 18c | 214.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 8c | 208.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1c…f530backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…739fbacked Yes | 12c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…7127backed Yes | 18c | 198.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 7c | 189.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…5907backed Yes | 16c | 165.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 160.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 14c | 137.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…7fb8backed Yes | 15c | 136$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 20c | 110$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 13c | 106.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…ff74backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…0b36backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 77 | 15.6%12 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Yes | 15c | 90.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b3…0cd4backed Yes | 12c | 86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa64a…21dabacked Yes | 16c | 67.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…a85cbacked Yes | 17c | 65.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 20c | 51.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…6422backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa4…0821backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…4eb5backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 76c | 16.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 6-13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 6-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.