Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 6-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x780ffab3330b1a8d20eac91fc0414f443682400381e636e500c6d391bcddc4d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 18,725$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.64 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 7c | 13,223$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.07 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 3c | 12,220$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.24 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 7c | 12,081$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.86 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 1c | 4,069$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 16c | 3,099$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.99 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 6c | 2,938$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.24 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,559$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 2c | 2,030$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…3686backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 2c | 1,811$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,563$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 4c | 1,372$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 7c | 1,337$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 7c | 1,330$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.69 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba2…4126backed Yes | 8c | 1,309$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,220$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 8c | 1,162$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.42 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 4c | 1,132$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…ff74backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…174bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | +162.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,041$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…971cbacked Yes | 4c | 990.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 10c | 774.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 15c | 669.53$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 9c | 610$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 4c | 597.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac37…55eabacked Yes | 8c | 597$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 15c | 582.01$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.17 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…4f92backed Yes | 8c | 480.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 13c | 430.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 8c | 393.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 13c | 367.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 3c | 353.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5459…9b52backed Yes | 3c | 315.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae5…155ebacked Yes | 4c | 306.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a63…2e23backed Yes | 8c | 305.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 300.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 5c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…8d5fbacked Yes | 9c | 257.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 9c | 247.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 4c | 234.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 11c | 229.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab13…758cbacked Yes | 8c | 224.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 10c | 203.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 143 | 8.4%12 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf59…fefdbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 7c | 198.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 10c | 188.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…824ebacked Yes | 10c | 167.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…8df5backed Yes | 17c | 132.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6144…2fffbacked Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 9c | 109.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 6-13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 6-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.