Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab4f2b469746c6ccc06819d9cc7579db71f0f07b1c2bb10bb63056f995fb051f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 19c | 10,452$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.48 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 9c | 10,007$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.33 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 75c | 4,015$3,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.01 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 22c | 3,821$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.09 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 22c | 2,287$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.46 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 11c | 1,960$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.91 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 22c | 1,902$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.74 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,766$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.05 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 1,625$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.3 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…bbfabacked Yes | 17c | 1,608$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.23 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 23c | 1,476$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.74 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…4688backed Yes | 42c | 1,467$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 19c | 1,144$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.35 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…42a4backed Yes | 28c | 1,142$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…c841backed Yes | 38c | 1,078$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 43c | 1,053$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 31c | 997.57$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.97 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 26c | 963.59$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.25 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed Yes | 26c | 949.52$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.64 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…429abacked Yes | 38c | 921.05$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 31c | 912.66$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 39c | 786.63$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.53 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 10c | 717.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 38c | 684.21$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 22c | 675.24$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.88 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 12c | 651.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked Yes | 32c | 598.09$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 25c | 581.68$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 13c | 562.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.51 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 16c | 560.88$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…19bcbacked Yes | 24c | 557.92$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed Yes | 14c | 508.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…ff2bbacked Yes | 26c | 502.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…d485backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96da…ff74backed Yes | 35c | 481.25$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 22c | 455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…9628backed Yes | 36c | 455$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes | 7c | 446.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +566.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…3096backed Yes | 31c | 435$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 18c | 427.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 11c | 409.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 34c | 407.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.44 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 376.82$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.46 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x483e…2d6bbacked Yes | 27c | 368.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f86…3a77backed Yes | 37c | 364.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 10c | 362.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…5907backed Yes | 20c | 347.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 29c | 340.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed No | 75c | 319.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…8d5fbacked Yes | 38c | 307$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 29c | 303.6$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 63c | 299.99$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5350…df2abacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 18c | 249.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…6842backed Yes | 15c | 249.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 63c | 227.58$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba2…4126backed Yes | 22c | 227.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 78c | 222$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed No | 72c | 217.82$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.32 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b87…a20abacked Yes | 36c | 217.81$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…004dbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b40…2cbdbacked Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…4310backed Yes | 29c | 190.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a32…ae7bbacked No | 74c | 189.36$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed Yes | 19c | 173.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 37c | 162.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 21c | 160.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 29c | 156.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb564…778dbacked Yes | 33c | 151.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee96…a980backed Yes | 37c | 149.37$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…791cbacked Yes | 12c | 142.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 20c | 132.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 27c | 130.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 11c | 130.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 80c | 128.23$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +149.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3510…2238backed Yes | 39c | 128.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4438backed Yes | 18c | 128.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 125.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…c556backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a5dcbacked Yes | 28c | 115.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…bdadbacked Yes | 44c | 114.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…0669backed Yes | 23c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2462…3f8dbacked Yes | 34c | 108.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 33c | 108.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…6203backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…9313backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b53…1fe3backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd045…7ec3backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…9c79backed Yes | 32c | 96.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1152…931fbacked Yes | 37c | 93.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 34c | 85.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…b6aebacked Yes | 47c | 85.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 6-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.