TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9f06…6203

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1540%6 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-30.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.62
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$195.51
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.16
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$192.16
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$209.9
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$235.29
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$235.29
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$208.47
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$246.27
All 15 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick19cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 500-549 times Feb 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14.7
Will Elon tweet 875-899 times Feb 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$19.97
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Dec 20-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST+455.6%+$91.11
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 25 - November 1? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$23.48
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$22.72
All 15 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2024, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+171.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2024, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United beat Fenerbahce?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ajax beat Qarabag?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2024, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid beat Atalanta?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST+163.2%+$97.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+56.5%+$28.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dogecoin above $0.40 on December 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$43
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.