Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13033198e37a7d148227100458da7b0e66550b4d30d78e4849ac09fda0a0a7f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,122
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,284$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 5c | 1,391$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…5afcbacked Yes | 14c | 1,345$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +146%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 9c | 940.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 16c | 869.66$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 13c | 759.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 11c | 700$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 21c | 690.86$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.54 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 15c | 512$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 509.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 18c | 500.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…8983backed Yes | 30c | 334.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 31c | 305.07$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 23c | 300$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 18c | 260$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…e6d9backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 21c | 221.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 25c | 220.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa3…8cf6backed Yes | 28c | 218.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…686fbacked Yes | 19c | 205.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 25c | 204.56$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 22c | 198$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…6fb0backed Yes | 26c | 193.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae7…12bcbacked Yes | 23c | 128.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…2cc3backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10bf…209fbacked Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…cd61backed Yes | 17c | 119.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 115.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…6203backed Yes | 24c | 94.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 79.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 69.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…5055backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…b39ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 18-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.