Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 18-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4fd35481eb4c60699eed13e4e1520ab3da9db2fee36239d2e2b5fcd3c0de853
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $220,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $214,832
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe168…fa16backed Yes | 28c | 3,700$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f54…9063backed Yes | 30c | 3,600$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2781…03a5backed No | 72c | 1,900$1,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f54…ef1dbacked No | 70c | 1,847$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2576…5a53backed No | 72c | 1,800$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2991…1aeabacked No | 70c | 1,753$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961f…98f8backed Yes | 1c | 1,680$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc2…d4f9backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,442$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ea…a90abacked Yes | 30c | 1,300$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…8e54backed Yes | 30c | 1,300$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…0967backed Yes | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…92b2backed Yes | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df8…9740backed Yes | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad03…271fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…80ffbacked Yes | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…621dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,200$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,185$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc299…dc5ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,140$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde16…e321backed Yes | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff4…4f35backed No | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 25c | 711.95$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d1…c12dbacked Yes | 30c | 700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…869abacked No | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f2…3140backed No | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ea…cd55backed No | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x183c…f8b7backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4672…56b4backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…c08cbacked No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0061…1528backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd536…767abacked No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…a713backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…90abbacked No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…1391backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171f…9f00backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…7272backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4084…c470backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c84…b756backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…91febacked No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d0…f892backed No | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7050…1169backed No | 70c | 591.67$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 76c | 544.69$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.57 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f97…53abbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764e…cb25backed No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed No | 73c | 406.96$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf4…e38dbacked No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 79c | 378$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 21c | 358.46$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 71c | 350$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ba…623dbacked No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…c71abacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 14c | 277.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b57…154abacked Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 76c | 235.97$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.51 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…ac79backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae7…12bcbacked Yes | 9c | 128.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 27c | 104.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…7b60backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e4…9390backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb1…7adfbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e69…3bfebacked Yes | 32c | 87.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa3…8cf6backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e03…5640backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes | 19c | 54.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345a…888ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 43.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…215cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6013…d915backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc590…9a87backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 18-25?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 18-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.