Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 18-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83ec6277e0b990f2bfd3d64410379e04878430d836f71bfd10e473561f1512af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,934
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,934 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd7cc…56c3backed Yes | 40c | 4,602$1,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca1…9531backed No | 31c | 4,300$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 10c | 3,700$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.5 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…5afcbacked Yes | 15c | 2,857$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,417.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +146%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…504cbacked Yes | 69c | 2,330$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked No | 28c | 2,144$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…5db0backed Yes | 69c | 1,970$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,625$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 52c | 1,271$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.49 | 84 | 23.8%20 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 60c | 1,126$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.65 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…c06cbacked Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 30c | 999.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 26c | 962$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777b…08b0backed Yes | 39c | 862.59$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 45cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed No | 50c | 738.66$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.47 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…4025backed No | 52c | 600$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 39c | 596.02$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.07 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd389…2cc3backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…a7babacked No | 36c | 551.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 34c | 543.61$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.61 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 23c | 542$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.45 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 19c | 527.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 72c | 518.27$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.23 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 78c | 508.66$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aae…0eefbacked No | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…b2ccbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…4c6fbacked No | 68c | 468.05$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 17c | 443.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.68 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 25c | 401.54$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.54 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb1…d8f0backed No | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 390.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.17 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 11c | 376$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.95 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…e6d9backed Yes | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1946…3537backed Yes | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 12c | 295.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 18c | 282.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.05 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 13c | 260.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.49 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d7…419bbacked Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 40c | 232.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 58c | 227.44$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…97edbacked Yes | 30c | 210.29$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…686fbacked Yes | 17c | 205.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e98…b729backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 66c | 199.44$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.24 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 68c | 198.93$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e99…9206backed Yes | 16c | 196.22$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 11c | 179.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x893e…6b47backed No | 49c | 173.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 55c | 162.74$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab60…17a6backed No | 57c | 150$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 144.14$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…6fb0backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…02c7backed Yes | 52c | 120.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.05 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10bf…209fbacked Yes | 65c | 119.92$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…8c52backed Yes | 15c | 114.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…decdbacked No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…336dbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +217.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dce…3cc1backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f23…f7d5backed Yes | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd431…1dfbbacked No | 29c | 67.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb96a…bc42backed Yes | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked No | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02a9…2882backed Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ef…871fbacked Yes | 68c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…550cbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90eb…ad9ebacked No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e79…fc2ebacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…8250backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…ff3abacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d9…9bd6backed Yes | 76c | 24.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 66c | 24.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Yes | 57c | 23.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0758…fe19backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ee…b947backed Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6491…25d0backed Yes | 70c | 15.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4c…3581backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 18-25?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.