Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb612c57a5a5ab08bedc57d72b6cfd239df8707a6c9274a28075fdc6fd2db8692
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe168…fa16backed Yes | 25c | 3,800$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f54…9063backed Yes | 23c | 3,700$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,080$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2781…03a5backed No | 75c | 1,950$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f54…ef1dbacked No | 77c | 1,900$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2576…5a53backed No | 75c | 1,850$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2991…1aeabacked No | 77c | 1,800$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…4675backed Yes | 7c | 1,747$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.85 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…8e54backed Yes | 24c | 1,700$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked Yes | 4c | 1,582$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 23c | 1,015$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 17c | 926.32$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.95 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 900.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.05 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…91febacked No | 76c | 900$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 879.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…d194backed Yes | 9c | 841.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…869abacked No | 76c | 800$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…c71abacked Yes | 22c | 700$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 627.84$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.94 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e4…9390backed No | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b57…154abacked Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 14c | 483.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfa…d143backed Yes | 23c | 399.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 5c | 323.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +165%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 6c | 312.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345a…888ebacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 13c | 282.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f97…53abbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e08…686fbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…ac79backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf4…e38dbacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 180$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7598…4221backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e69…3bfebacked Yes | 23c | 120.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ea…9cd7backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 19c | 105$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed No | 77c | 94.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 40-44 times October 18-25?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-14 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 15-19 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-24 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-34 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 35-39 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 45-49 times October 18-25?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50 or more times October 18-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.