TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the Australian Open?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,948
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,966

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,948 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x079a…3ef8backed No73c8,309$6,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.95862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+98.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc940…4d39backed Yes70c7,118$4,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,970.1290%0 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes22c5,426$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.371533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes23c4,500$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1638…339bbacked No77c4,427$3,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-67.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No75c4,193$3,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.3295140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d4f…00d8backed Yes37c4,054$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked No62c2,990$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,136.27450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed No17c2,531$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,100.981471.4%10 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.35per pick37cpaid+178.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No75c2,318$1,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.174459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked No18c2,200$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8045822.4%13 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…6efbbacked Yes4c1,876$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.06540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffda…1e18backed Yes24c1,734$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes23c1,694$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.4452750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f35…d2eabacked Yes38c1,459$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8996…fbcebacked Yes26c1,277$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.421428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x288c…a41dbacked Yes26c1,176$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes30c1,167$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.232846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes26c1,074$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.89714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+257.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5804…dc41backed Yes22c1,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2206553.8%35 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes24c941.74$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-49.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes21c935.62$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.2840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes27c924.64$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.6981938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No74c865.63$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.171,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed No76c783.13$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.286136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Yes26c779.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20038348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No75c738.47$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.233823.7%9 W · 29 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2ceb…0c87backed Yes20c710.3$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a3c…f427backed Yes24c702.08$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes19c655.2$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.721435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-43.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No69c630.55$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.77977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+35.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes33c569.92$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.07922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed No36c555$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.23650%18 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes5c547.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.391612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf81b…89b1backed Yes22c463.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003627.8%10 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f85…d745backed Yes27c450$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-73.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x57fa…fd79backed Yes29c432.86$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e71…a236backed Yes21c420$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11bb…3a09backed Yes31c382.47$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.97540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ce2…060bbacked Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No66c326$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1107850%39 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xed01…9bb9backed Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5808…154bbacked Yes23c260.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes20c210$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes32c200$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Yes24c200$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1555…7d82backed Yes29c170.59$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f06…6203backed Yes30c166.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa263…6cf0backed Yes21c165.9$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8417538.3%67 W · 108 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd277…94d6backed Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.18per pick29cpaid-61.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed No74c145.38$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.85046%23 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed No79c143.81$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.22152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes27c143.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0638147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked No73c136.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3526039.2%102 W · 158 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ff…ee8abacked Yes26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcac2…1793backed Yes20c112$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8d2…c66bbacked Yes27c103.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281020%2 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf86…601fbacked Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510134.7%35 W · 66 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3258…9e52backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4215…1116backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-59.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7941…c675backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdae5…9f53backed Yes26c96.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94dc…009cbacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6255…a005backed Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69bb…0f5cbacked Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x082f…731cbacked Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f8…ae3abacked Yes55c90.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.97520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1315…ad47backed Yes27c90$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf947…55d0backed Yes29c86.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5a…3427backed Yes22c85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes20c82.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.59771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick37cpaid+127.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x687f…cefebacked Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid-55.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd385…af0dbacked Yes20c73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-68.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5669…1de1backed Yes16c63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0870%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No71c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5e…1740backed Yes22c59.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+72.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4425…919ebacked Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-75.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed No79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a6…941ebacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3589…e4fabacked No77c46.61$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01f5…a638backed Yes26c46.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb582…c3b6backed Yes26c44.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.521216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-74.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x31c5…c844backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5be9…91febacked Yes30c38.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9efd…431fbacked Yes28c36.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+55.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No64c25.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.181040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4740…ab96backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.