TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Taylor Fritz win the Australian Open?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,592
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,329

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,592 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes3c2,139$64 inLost-$64.241,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes4c1,993$78 inLost-$78.151533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-45.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes2c1,899$35 inLost-$35.41160%0 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f58…9c6abacked Yes3c1,756$59 inLost-$59.311216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-73.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes4c1,230$50 inLost-$50.076734.3%23 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes3c1,105$39 inLost-$38.5138147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cb7…1132backed Yes5c1,002$50 inLost-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x464e…7bd8backed Yes3c1,000$30 inLost-$30119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-75.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14bb…882bbacked Yes5c697$34 inLost-$33.89633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-55.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes4c569$23 inLost-$22.76714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a0…f955backed Yes4c539.89$23 inLost-$23633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick11cpaid+35.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes5c475.27$21 inLost-$21.392030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes3c375$13 inLost-$12.91225%3 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-39%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Yes5c300$15 inLost-$14.922344.8%100 W · 123 L-13.0wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.