Tennis · resolved market
Will Ben Shelton win the Australian Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f9629aaeb37cf5553858a2757420025141dd2fc17b2f186bd567ef56762ca3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 4c | 9,521$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.98 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 2c | 8,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.4 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,206$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 2c | 3,980$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14dd…13eebacked Yes | 2c | 2,452$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Yes | 4c | 2,315$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…1de1backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4425…919ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,508$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…e226backed Yes | 5c | 1,251$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2909…d360backed Yes | 3c | 1,172$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffda…1e18backed Yes | 3c | 918.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Yes | 2c | 869$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c4…ff35backed Yes | 5c | 696$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…a390backed Yes | 4c | 495.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Yes | 3c | 482.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…41b7backed Yes | 2c | 450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…601fbacked Yes | 6c | 433.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0508…028cbacked Yes | 4c | 342.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67a…eb69backed Yes | 8c | 182.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ben Shelton win the Australian Open?this page
- Will Alex De Minaur win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Alexander Zverev win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Casper Ruud win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Frances Tiafoe win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Grigor Dimitrov win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Holger Rune win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Jack Draper win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Jakub Menšík win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win the Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Joao Fonseca win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Nick Kyrgios win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win the Australian Open?No won
- Will Tommy Paul win the Australian Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.