Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5689604451e904fb883f2388deb946f282766de500b33d3e82520fd07297dd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,365
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 2c | 1,272$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 632.03$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 14c | 566$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…86aabacked Yes | 14c | 542.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 12c | 350$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 13c | 320.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 11c | 300$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 12c | 296.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…9710backed Yes | 5c | 279.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 13c | 278.51$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…4542backed Yes | 11c | 250.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…5afcbacked Yes | 12c | 195.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +146%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…db7bbacked Yes | 17c | 190.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…6203backed Yes | 13c | 180.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 164.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…cd61backed Yes | 16c | 155.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab99…7ac1backed Yes | 13c | 139.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…6fb0backed Yes | 15c | 135.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…5055backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 15c | 118.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…e340backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…0cd4backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…9768backed Yes | 15c | 97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…3e38backed Yes | 16c | 93.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394c…d0f3backed Yes | 17c | 90.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 11c | 89.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 25 - November 1? No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.