Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x81d3b78939693cb9b4613408ad4bfd751dfcdf96bac396a5e9d0f48f1f7d338b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,161
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,161 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c6c…9047backed Yes | 79c | 3,677$2,904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.56 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed No | 29c | 3,200$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.23 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 80c | 3,000$2,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,389.97 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 55c | 2,023$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.43 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed No | 47c | 1,940$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.55 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 5c | 1,920$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…86aabacked Yes | 34c | 1,843$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 29c | 1,271$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.06 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 65c | 1,150$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 12c | 1,127$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$991.86 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 19c | 1,018$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.36 | 184 | 12%22 W · 162 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…5587backed Yes | 11c | 895.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.89per pick | 11cpaid | +795.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 62c | 891.1$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 28cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 14c | 745.73$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.34 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 42c | 724.74$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 35c | 712.14$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.8 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…3797backed Yes | 18c | 701.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.39 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 36c | 691.14$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed No | 63c | 671.7$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 658$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.95 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…b6c8backed No | 23c | 654.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 8c | 623.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.1 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3306…57fbbacked No | 14c | 582.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 75c | 561.92$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.62 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 13c | 521.86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.4 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd941…a1d0backed Yes | 15c | 520.51$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.96 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…336dbacked Yes | 20c | 428.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +217.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 33c | 408.67$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.54 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 4c | 377.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 54c | 346.82$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes | 51c | 334.28$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.37 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…64d6backed Yes | 51c | 283.5$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e0…7ffabacked No | 56c | 264.28$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 77c | 225.35$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.67 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed No | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…5b98backed No | 17c | 205.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…e340backed Yes | 33c | 202.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4d…cd61backed Yes | 75c | 201.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2544…156bbacked No | 30c | 201.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5d…108abacked Yes | 74c | 200.82$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0517…7127backed Yes | 25c | 200.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…4310backed Yes | 31c | 195.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4735…bf9bbacked Yes | 10c | 190.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +377.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…4542backed Yes | 17c | 170.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bcfabacked Yes | 36c | 151.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +220.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes | 20c | 149.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 54c | 145.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed No | 68c | 136.78$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3c…7371backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2216…4accbacked Yes | 8c | 136$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +179%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…be81backed Yes | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 78c | 110.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eae…5b80backed Yes | 69c | 100.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd3…b78dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 22cpaid | +403.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48da…0419backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…f072backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x156d…957dbacked Yes | 19c | 90.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…951dbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…5af6backed Yes | 14c | 72.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +264.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0083…02c7backed Yes | 40c | 70.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…5263backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -62%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…b6f9backed No | 22c | 66.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5053…2966backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +191.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 76c | 55.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cb…90b9backed Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…39d6backed Yes | 25c | 51.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…aec6backed Yes | 26c | 46.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed No | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…c212backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked No | 49c | 33.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c812backed No | 40c | 28.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…7fb8backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…dd63backed Yes | 54c | 24.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…0094backed Yes | 72c | 23.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150-174 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175-199 times Oct 25 - Nov 1? No won
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times October 25 - November 1? No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.