Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Manchester United beat Fenerbahce?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe4ce6cb0af9d8f58901bd0a2f073c3cc9b61efc8d56e473ee7da91c4a0e14ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,261
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,261 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 61c | 19,210$11,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,471.24 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 37c | 8,095$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 41c | 4,302$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,762 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…0b65backed Yes | 43c | 4,020$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,710.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed No | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.95 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 62c | 3,459$2,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,315.51 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 57c | 1,547$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.63 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 42c | 1,293$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…b5f8backed Yes | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 61c | 1,044$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…a6abbacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 38c | 799.99$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 37c | 350$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8767…a37fbacked Yes | 39c | 253.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3937…f693backed Yes | 40c | 249.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ff…cfbdbacked Yes | 43c | 228.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a32…2151backed Yes | 36c | 222.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 56c | 171.6$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…9fb8backed Yes | 40c | 160.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 58c | 143.6$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed No | 62c | 122.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…38b4backed Yes | 45c | 121.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 42c | 118.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9273…fcf8backed Yes | 42c | 111.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe9…f4e5backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb2…6dbebacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed No | 44c | 94.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…8a75backed Yes | 43c | 79.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…97f6backed Yes | 42c | 67.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…0b0fbacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…6c29backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceba…9898backed Yes | 33c | 51.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4442…d5c1backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…6203backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b9…8069backed No | 64c | 45.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…5250backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…38eebacked Yes | 39c | 41.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4630…a058backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…07c2backed No | 60c | 37.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 57c | 34.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…4bddbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 56c | 30.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6adf…f52bbacked No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2e…511ebacked No | 60c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…a6b5backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea69…26dabacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United beat Fenerbahce?this page
- Will Fenerbahce beat Manchester United?No won
- Will the match between Fenerbahce and Manchester United end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.