Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Fenerbahce beat Manchester United?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f30ccdbb46cec1aec5d625237257a2ca5423884d267c3ab5917b93ae5b034f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd363…a030backed No | 67c | 11,000$7,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,630 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaff…3f90backed Yes | 33c | 11,000$3,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,630 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc586…35d7backed No | 67c | 212.89$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 34c | 203.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 31c | 199.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 157.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…7f06backed No | 70c | 135.71$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 68c | 135$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 34c | 104.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe9…f4e5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 66c | 99.98$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 73c | 99.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5e…91dabacked Yes | 34c | 66.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa1e…75cabacked Yes | 34c | 58.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 66c | 54.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 64c | 46.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…7fe3backed Yes | 40c | 36.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c5…9fb8backed Yes | 34c | 29.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6710…328fbacked No | 69c | 26.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked No | 69c | 25.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b5…a6b5backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fenerbahce beat Manchester United?this page
- Will Manchester United beat Fenerbahce?No won
- Will the match between Fenerbahce and Manchester United end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.