Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will the match between Fenerbahce and Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bd29e6d922a4169818cad6f4bc758abc27a7a4f3e301166ce732e60f797f946
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,674
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,674 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 15c | 2,102$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.46 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 75c | 700$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…2adabacked Yes | 29c | 505.67$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +246.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 25c | 485.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.19 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c39…15d7backed No | 76c | 296.05$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb851…9849backed No | 75c | 260.33$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…38cabacked No | 75c | 259.73$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +199%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed No | 72c | 137.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 25c | 69.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…0b0fbacked Yes | 29c | 63.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6adf…f52bbacked Yes | 51c | 63.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…a0c5backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +251%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13ef…dc31backed No | 75c | 53.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f7…9385backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 72c | 34.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfea8…bdfbbacked No | 75c | 21.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Fenerbahce and Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Fenerbahce beat Manchester United?No won
- Will Manchester United beat Fenerbahce?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.