TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fifa International · resolved market

Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,139,473
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,862,469

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,139,473 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,039 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd650…14fbbacked No63c1,013,197$642,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370,427.2955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9243…658ebacked No63c633,749$401,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232,053.9415249.3%75 W · 77 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed No64c289,579$185,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,248.542729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes36c260,977$94,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,583.312,43929%707 W · 1,732 L-65.3wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes34c245,373$83,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83,159.742,40737.7%908 W · 1,499 L-48.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed No65c239,341$155,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,216.3374752.2%390 W · 357 L+2.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes29c227,164$65,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,214.524,59540.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L-91.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes37c215,625$80,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,016.221,98532.5%645 W · 1,340 L-47.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes34c206,236$69,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,211.292,27139.5%896 W · 1,375 L+10.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1e…bab3backed No65c205,000$134,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,749.8422348.4%108 W · 115 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked Yes36c200,000$72,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,00020844.7%93 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f25…1e13backed Yes36c190,779$68,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,680.61425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes37c156,327$57,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,626.422,60337.8%984 W · 1,619 L-40.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc289…ab37backed Yes37c135,135$50,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,00016947.3%80 W · 89 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbb…9a17backed Yes36c133,337$48,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,556.7117452.3%91 W · 83 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes34c128,307$43,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,301.368,61429.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L-166.6wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Yes37c121,857$44,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,840.0314232.4%46 W · 96 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x447d…5eeabacked No63c112,918$71,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,779.627447.3%35 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Yes37c100,097$37,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,035.995328.3%15 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9854…6bf2backed No65c100,000$65,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,999.9817840.4%72 W · 106 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e2…4b88backed No63c99,998$62,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,999.272548%12 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed No64c97,765$62,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,642.344858.3%28 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f9…f814backed No65c90,000$58,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,499.863240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x217b…c168backed Yes38c89,536$34,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,000.121952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82ba…afeabacked Yes37c84,820$31,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,583.8115337.3%57 W · 96 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x61e4…ca76backed Yes39c76,923$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,999.951861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ac…b964backed Yes36c75,000$27,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,0005749.1%28 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffe9…a70ebacked Yes37c74,406$27,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,530.323339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Yes34c72,453$24,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,607.1324441.8%102 W · 142 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes36c72,363$25,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,899.871,56043.8%684 W · 876 L-4.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked No61c70,492$43,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,491.88952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2ef…5a1cbacked No64c68,834$44,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,780.2410142.6%43 W · 58 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51ea…150fbacked Yes37c68,684$25,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,112.9419332.1%62 W · 131 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79e…1fb0backed No61c68,286$41,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,631.541877.8%14 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick60cpaid+26.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfb3e…a19abacked Yes34c58,248$19,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,524.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d7b…e2cebacked No60c51,786$31,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,714.328440.5%34 W · 50 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed No63c48,579$30,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,073.0729952.5%157 W · 142 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3828…06eebacked Yes40c47,687$19,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,074.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No66c46,847$31,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,815.961,22443.4%531 W · 693 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef50…e3bdbacked Yes32c46,572$14,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,7953426.5%9 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked No64c44,161$28,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,792.8810056%56 W · 44 L+11.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+30.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked No63c40,256$25,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,894.619948.5%48 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes18c37,516$6,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,698.23,69636.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L-44.0wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed No64c35,000$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,6002937.9%11 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x05a3…2672backed Yes35c34,492$12,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,072.21633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd61c…84fbbacked Yes28c29,750$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,200.02616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-71.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c40…80dfbacked No65c28,500$18,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9752941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes34c27,781$9,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,581.3938734.4%133 W · 254 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc48…24c3backed No63c27,700$17,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,249.153842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4fd…748bbacked Yes39c27,073$10,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,478.7114727.2%40 W · 107 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6550…8451backed No77c26,576$20,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,059.1321738.7%84 W · 133 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes37c25,736$9,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,522.3619345.1%87 W · 106 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe214…c5cebacked Yes38c25,000$9,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,44022437.1%83 W · 141 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No67c24,695$16,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,064.7442541.6%177 W · 248 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…04a9backed No65c22,978$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,977.942050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Yes38c22,222$8,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,444.3642345.6%193 W · 230 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed No63c22,222$14,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,110.9519038.9%74 W · 116 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…2a75backed No64c20,266$13,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,240.5214055.7%78 W · 62 L+15.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+22.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Yes37c20,106$7,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,439.2263035.7%225 W · 405 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x248c…26b6backed No63c20,015$12,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,405.555147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Yes32c20,000$6,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4007550.7%38 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Yes36c20,000$7,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,199.8553448.5%259 W · 275 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes36c19,076$6,797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,796.6979231.1%246 W · 546 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Yes36c18,763$6,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,754.86847.1%32 W · 36 L+7.7wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+20.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x457f…2a64backed No61c18,035$11,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,033.652755.6%15 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91b9…3ab4backed Yes37c18,000$6,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6609645.8%44 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Yes34c17,495$5,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,948.145352.8%28 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed No63c17,162$10,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,349.9414349.7%71 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed No67c17,058$11,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,629.149247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d3…7c23backed No63c16,559$10,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,126.962653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x072f…ffddbacked No62c16,200$10,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,155.828450%42 W · 42 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No62c15,734$9,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,905.711,26247.5%600 W · 662 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x400d…28afbacked Yes36c15,481$5,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,573.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819b…d996backed Yes33c15,152$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00014546.9%68 W · 77 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed No70c15,055$10,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,516.6120955.5%116 W · 93 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5faf…1183backed Yes37c15,000$5,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5509823.5%23 W · 75 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-33.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70ef…e6ddbacked No63c15,000$9,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,55010840.7%44 W · 64 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf742…e039backed Yes16c15,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,45026447.7%126 W · 138 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e78…3945backed Yes37c14,758$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50019529.7%58 W · 137 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b0…e4e5backed Yes35c14,140$4,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,948.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4b4…1e69backed Yes37c14,054$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,200922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-65.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd04a…d7ecbacked Yes34c13,000$4,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,4209145.1%41 W · 50 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fd8…7749backed No64c12,577$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,577.4216041.3%66 W · 94 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No64c12,500$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.9774447.8%356 W · 388 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed No62c12,247$7,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,642.9612255.7%68 W · 54 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes26c12,061$3,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,132.522,30737.6%867 W · 1,440 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-27.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No63c11,999$7,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,439.629646.3%137 W · 159 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85bb…9adabacked Yes37c11,436$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20032429.9%97 W · 227 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Yes37c10,811$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00065948.6%320 W · 339 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf15f…4497backed Yes37c10,708$3,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,917.7612754.3%69 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfeb4…2d0abacked Yes35c10,442$3,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,670.451457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10a6…4d8bbacked Yes38c10,308$3,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,947.2264446.4%299 W · 345 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed No66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4006842.6%29 W · 39 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb748…dbddbacked Yes34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4005339.6%21 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa80e…6aa1backed Yes35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50027345.8%125 W · 148 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x209b…5706backed No63c10,000$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.998845.5%40 W · 48 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe462…1a2abacked Yes32c9,232$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0007133.8%24 W · 47 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7c…c933backed Yes37c9,068$3,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,369.525234.6%18 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed No64c8,889$5,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,199.962755.6%15 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick61cpaid+4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yes26c8,774$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,264.154,45737.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L+31.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.