Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ajax beat Qarabag?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x852da2b0a23d45dcf8ef4987bf431bfac2a7982fdd5b40af8addbf2f7a182959
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 61c | 25,097$15,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,280.75 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Yes | 38c | 19,975$7,589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,385.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 8c | 12,910$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,863.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +418.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 48c | 3,090$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.86 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…b7edbacked Yes | 42c | 2,639$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.94 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 24c | 1,390$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.61 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 51c | 1,110$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.86 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 49c | 1,020$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.14 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…1f75backed Yes | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 53cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed No | 50c | 950$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 51c | 937.43$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.54 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No | 61c | 636.55$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.89 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 45c | 599.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 48c | 443.96$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.1 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +224.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 54c | 298.74$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.33 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…1151backed Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42ed…d13dbacked Yes | 52c | 289.98$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3937…f693backed Yes | 40c | 270.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…35f7backed No | 54c | 235$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d9…7a4dbacked Yes | 46c | 235$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 40c | 219.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 46c | 217.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 47c | 214$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed No | 47c | 213.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 52c | 209.96$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…9956backed No | 68c | 200$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 47c | 199.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 60c | 199.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 41c | 169.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 63c | 162$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 52c | 102.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x484c…017ebacked Yes | 50c | 99.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5893…4bf1backed No | 54c | 99.07$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…1fd3backed Yes | 47c | 98.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c04…1844backed Yes | 52c | 97.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb44…f556backed Yes | 54c | 92.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc0…762fbacked Yes | 39c | 84.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 52c | 76.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +36%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 49c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…b717backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b21…ef42backed Yes | 46c | 71.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0da…71e3backed Yes | 44c | 60.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…0b0fbacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f1…3370backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…6203backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…fc5ebacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b56…3044backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…be78backed Yes | 47c | 38.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af4…227cbacked Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed No | 56c | 35.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1200…a827backed Yes | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb987…945ebacked No | 55c | 34.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f20…87c9backed Yes | 47c | 34.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d0…8a75backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe11…f088backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…75a6backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea69…26dabacked No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ajax beat Qarabag?this page
- Will Qarabag beat Ajax?No won
- Will the match between Qarabag and Ajax end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.