F1 · resolved market
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf5cc2eb95f2eba6120c62fefc04871963d80f4aa3503835dded794e3ccdb5b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 68c | 4,442$3,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.2 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x830d…3f0ebacked Yes | 32c | 3,079$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 3c | 2,827$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.37 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 74c | 1,724$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.01 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 71c | 1,406$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.16 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…21a2backed Yes | 29c | 1,401$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…f10ebacked No | 71c | 1,274$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.75 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 29c | 1,169$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 31c | 999.59$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…f89dbacked Yes | 7c | 989.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 887.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…58f0backed Yes | 17c | 800$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3753…9cb5backed Yes | 15c | 669.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…e0b0backed Yes | 32c | 661.74$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 27c | 613.16$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 17c | 553.57$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 26c | 517.32$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.5 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…5df3backed Yes | 29c | 357.37$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 19c | 350.43$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.55 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…3d8abacked Yes | 15c | 313.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 16c | 278.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007e…bb8bbacked Yes | 18c | 273.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 29c | 269.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…1c35backed Yes | 12c | 231.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…e9d5backed Yes | 18c | 217.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 72c | 201.3$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 11c | 196.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…3f88backed Yes | 30c | 181.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 80c | 170.05$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.01 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330d…6174backed Yes | 20c | 170$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…6203backed Yes | 30c | 167.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f94…e466backed Yes | 18c | 163.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0559…78efbacked Yes | 12c | 162.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6206…d9a2backed Yes | 17c | 144.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Yes | 8c | 140.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked No | 77c | 138.05$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3429…2323backed Yes | 21c | 130.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48d…a875backed Yes | 17c | 125.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a5…b96dbacked Yes | 33c | 118.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…6b77backed Yes | 28c | 106.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4e…ddfebacked Yes | 26c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…5544backed Yes | 30c | 100.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…ff1abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa610…0461backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…87d0backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8870…6578backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca8…1a39backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fc…e4c9backed Yes | 15c | 84.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed Yes | 30c | 83.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…c50bbacked Yes | 30c | 83.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba3…e558backed No | 73c | 82.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975e…3b74backed Yes | 27c | 73.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18e…d05fbacked Yes | 30c | 67.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…2885backed Yes | 30c | 67.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cab…8fbcbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…cf42backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 74c | 54.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…0eeabacked Yes | 30c | 50.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb4…9c38backed Yes | 30c | 50.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cad…3079backed Yes | 28c | 40.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…df81backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…c656backed No | 72c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…a247backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…b676backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?this page
- Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Sergio Perez win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will another driver win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.