F1 · resolved market
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b80e9d9f4b690f50d6e0d42bb15bb3fc0ab7d20aa442f0cdd56215284d2917
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bba…4c96backed Yes | 6c | 5,304$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +340.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 21c | 4,843$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.46 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ab…25dfbacked Yes | 15c | 4,164$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 2c | 3,110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 8c | 1,920$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 92 | 23.9%22 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…6e75backed Yes | 5c | 1,897$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked No | 80c | 1,691$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,667$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Yes | 5c | 1,532$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,408$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.91 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…3d8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,264$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e9…f89dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,260$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…1ef1backed Yes | 4c | 1,083$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 3c | 913.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed1…9116backed Yes | 3c | 853.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…9e29backed Yes | 5c | 793.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd365…13e2backed Yes | 4c | 666.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 7c | 641.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…8e6dbacked Yes | 3c | 612.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40de…ca49backed Yes | 15c | 464.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…8949backed Yes | 3c | 385.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 32c | 359.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…82fcbacked Yes | 29c | 343.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Yes | 4c | 312.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850c…3f88backed Yes | 6c | 312.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…02debacked Yes | 8c | 302.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c56…7007backed Yes | 11c | 287.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed Yes | 7c | 266.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa01c…6b40backed Yes | 7c | 266.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 15c | 202.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…07aabacked Yes | 11c | 156.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc835…9525backed Yes | 12c | 126.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675e…11a8backed Yes | 16c | 122.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…a163backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 13c | 95.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…edbdbacked Yes | 20c | 79.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2817…1f7cbacked Yes | 16c | 67.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…d5d4backed No | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +360.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 79c | 24.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?this page
- Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Sergio Perez win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will another driver win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.