F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d3fc318619d9e7fc5dd0d1e70f6209624e56c619370e4b32ee3db547ee75659
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x873c…ac48backed Yes | 0c | 19,416$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 2c | 8,815$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.53 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…c2f8backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f35…d2eabacked Yes | 45c | 1,213$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Yes | 24c | 999.99$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 77c | 849.4$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 776.79$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.72 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked Yes | 26c | 573.68$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 6c | 532$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Yes | 18c | 491.09$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 58c | 455.21$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.71 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e58…d19dbacked Yes | 28c | 390.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…3062backed Yes | 29c | 348.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes | 29c | 344.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0b…87d0backed Yes | 8c | 333.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 6c | 329.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…8b0fbacked Yes | 31c | 327.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…2a0abacked Yes | 31c | 322.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…7f08backed No | 68c | 292.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…c656backed Yes | 8c | 255.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 70c | 228.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f35…7594backed Yes | 7c | 206.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…58f0backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed No | 67c | 179.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…dcffbacked No | 76c | 173.26$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a5…b96dbacked Yes | 31c | 169.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…f5e2backed Yes | 27c | 165.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 12c | 158.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…8b56backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59a2…1f0bbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 70c | 133.28$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2533…926ebacked Yes | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5a…6821backed Yes | 26c | 115.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…bcb9backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…cb86backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a6…fb1bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…1f22backed Yes | 29c | 97.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…565abacked Yes | 31c | 92.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d9…2d9ebacked Yes | 27c | 90.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354b…e49cbacked Yes | 29c | 87.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed No | 76c | 79.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…d76bbacked Yes | 33c | 60.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd7…925ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Yes | 30c | 54.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaca5…3816backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bb…39f3backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97db…3ef7backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc9…f8b8backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…5374backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…ff1abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2817…1f7cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…1a48backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d95…b0a8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…edbdbacked No | 74c | 27.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed41…49edbacked No | 74c | 27.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 68c | 26.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 64c | 22.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…fa0dbacked No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed No | 69c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?this page
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will Sergio Perez win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
- Will another driver win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.