TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Dogecoin above $0.40 on December 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,823
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$87,852

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,823 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 181 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd49c…8150backed No49c12,868$6,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,568.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed No54c6,122$3,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,845.811711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-77.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d79…4725backed No51c3,287$1,674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+34.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1cc…07afbacked Yes61c3,271$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000825%2 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-65.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No51c3,163$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.74862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d2…7754backed Yes31c2,518$769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb78a…6291backed Yes57c2,143$1,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,221.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8948…28d5backed Yes54c1,822$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad6e…76f7backed Yes59c1,800$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No56c1,624$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.6333329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dc0…94ecbacked Yes13c1,556$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes1c1,544$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.46456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-78.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bce…85fabacked Yes7c1,252$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes43c1,241$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535.721240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe884…b0ebbacked No42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42f1…9eefbacked Yes58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c3…454ebacked Yes58c1,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe91…f772backed No42c1,000$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5801100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019e…1673backed No56c913$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd68d…bdf2backed Yes44c913$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a7…6cd5backed No56c913$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6efd…461bbacked Yes44c913$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes9c900.97$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.152218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdcea…e78bbacked Yes57c877.27$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.95757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes27c746.79$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.92575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Yes55c725.15$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c43…84fcbacked Yes12c550.15$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6730%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1efa…6a86backed Yes39c517.61$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0b…1d63backed No50c452.01$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.973100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+109.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccaa…9066backed Yes47c429.99$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.89616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick41cpaid-69.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x27fa…09dfbacked Yes57c421.75$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.39425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9b…3f8ebacked Yes39c420.68$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No46c410.97$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.721844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d1…6317backed Yes4c399.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes17c389.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.81160%0 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2375…e90dbacked Yes60c386.14$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.68616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid+465.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf15b…0934backed No44c351$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63d2…3276backed Yes37c348.72$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80e0…7ffabacked No60c338.22$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.221163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No48c300.19$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.19475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+87.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd25…a8a5backed Yes58c300$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes37c296.26$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a62…007fbacked Yes36c280.89$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x539e…38fcbacked Yes11c273.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x269d…33e0backed Yes57c270.91$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe45…0261backed Yes4c270$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d1e…7a42backed No41c250$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b7b…f74ebacked No44c235$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.47977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+36.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70a9…6a74backed No44c222.23$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.41580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+71.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes50c217.04$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.084316.3%7 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xad08…a238backed Yes37c216.22$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc39a…2214backed Yes43c209.97$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00d…b5a9backed Yes38c202.56$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcec4…bc4cbacked No46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1082100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb2c…a889backed Yes54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes58c199.98$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f4…2460backed Yes8c199.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042c…c031backed No49c196.08$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1918…7b6fbacked Yes22c194.61$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb8a…67d7backed Yes15c193.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x436a…f32abacked Yes41c192.6$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.14450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ea…2ba7backed No40c188.19$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0973…8986backed Yes55c176.78$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.23540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbc6…c602backed Yes57c175.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x880a…308ebacked Yes59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4383…fe6ebacked Yes55c164.22$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc17a…1db3backed Yes61c162.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b05…48f2backed Yes63c158.59$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick59cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x483e…2d6bbacked Yes63c157.81$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b56…192bbacked Yes57c150$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a8…8482backed Yes34c147.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8000…4a8ebacked Yes51c130.42$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+262.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e78…e48abacked Yes56c130.29$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef29…2388backed No36c129.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa0…920fbacked Yes57c128.66$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb90f…b000backed Yes62c127.97$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29d3…d189backed Yes33c127.12$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf162…ba35backed Yes58c125.42$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07df…4279backed Yes40c125.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x87ef…2c77backed Yes14c124.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+519.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df7…3155backed No52c120$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick28cpaid+155.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x495f…506abacked No54c119.6$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f46…7c81backed Yes9c119.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea23…025cbacked No65c117.66$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85bc…f829backed Yes52c115.28$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No16c113.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.191560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf639…10b0backed No50c100.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f28…078bbacked No39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f91…8823backed Yes61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa538…9304backed No39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+72.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a65…c808backed No41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d81…164abacked Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x893d…6b68backed Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86f0…f232backed Yes47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b19…f0aebacked Yes51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x29d4…5d39backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fa…0625backed Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.