Tweets · resolved market
Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd2479aa97e37c9ca4539852c8b5a2a69c4c4632d39ab856f0fe069ecfe96a43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,463$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 4c | 1,284$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 7c | 1,202$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.43 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked Yes | 12c | 617.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…b6c8backed Yes | 2c | 569.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…db94backed Yes | 26c | 500$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 105 | 27.6%29 W · 76 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 5c | 345.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb956…c475backed Yes | 3c | 299.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 267.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 6c | 203.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed No | 79c | 161.49$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…5362backed Yes | 33c | 156.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…0b0fbacked Yes | 34c | 146.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…53d3backed Yes | 35c | 121.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 15c | 102.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 262 | 24%63 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0887…b235backed Yes | 22c | 100.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f06…6203backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…b3aabacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 26c | 50.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5023…3f6abacked Yes | 33c | 36.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +104%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump tweet 40-49 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?this page
- Will Trump tweet 10-19 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Trump tweet 20-29 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Trump tweet 30-39 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Trump tweet 50-59 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Trump tweet 60-69 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Trump tweet 70-79 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
- Will Trump tweet 80-89 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?Yes won
- Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.