TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Trump tweet 90 or more times Oct 25 - Nov 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes19c3,501$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.81850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+61.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked Yes16c1,733$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.2170%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No78c1,716$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.896440.6%26 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid+83.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes26c1,557$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.4518618.3%34 W · 152 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes13c1,421$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.0418412%22 W · 162 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes6c1,391$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.028423.8%20 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed No72c1,363$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.4365623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes2c1,325$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5529.6%5 W · 47 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-56%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x77e5…e83cbacked Yes15c1,162$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0da…a7babacked Yes39c1,139$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.411050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab9f…f634backed Yes1c1,130$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6130%0 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e99…9206backed Yes23c1,097$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.31366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+155.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98cb…bd72backed No60c1,000$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4012524%6 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes35c915.54$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.411936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+165%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes28c876.15$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.323040%12 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed No16c820.53$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.696142.6%26 W · 35 L+10.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+32.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No52c795.7$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.757545.3%34 W · 41 L+10.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+54.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes10c727.88$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2917216.9%29 W · 143 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9595…1b16backed Yes31c639$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.611233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac18…7366backed No70c634.49$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.492100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70de…db94backed No70c550$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16610527.6%29 W · 76 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89dc…e209backed Yes24c500$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.322222.7%5 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid+24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0887…b235backed Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79b4…c276backed Yes20c499.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid+24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23bf…578bbacked No77c473.7$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.721346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick37cpaid-16%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcc8…35aebacked Yes24c448.43$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc98a…2a0cbacked Yes26c438.51$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed Yes30c415.82$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1611231.3%35 W · 77 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes19c410.22$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.421346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.18per pick28cpaid+109.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79df…f6c1backed Yes17c383.51$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c375.69$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5479735.9%286 W · 511 L-34.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1786…5b47backed Yes30c341$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.48425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba5…a431backed Yes76c328.95$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes20c300$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593423.5%8 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76e4…c5aebacked Yes20c298.79$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.761442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc916…715abacked No79c294.36$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.36425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-68.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c4…3797backed Yes20c262.35$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.042015%3 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b50…6c55backed Yes32c261.78$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.526016.7%10 W · 50 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes28c250$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd3…b78dbacked Yes33c235.94$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick22cpaid+403.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5023…3f6abacked Yes45c230$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.53420.6%7 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+104%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes24c221.79$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.152729.6%8 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+66.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcd77…84edbacked Yes22c216.19$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.771844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+94.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4092…f145backed Yes40c215$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7aa…608bbacked No60c214.45$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…3a51backed Yes12c203.44$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.731225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12e1…51f6backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127512%9 W · 66 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-18.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7875122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443641.7%15 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+85.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e29…740fbacked No62c199.99$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb389…a445backed Yes27c185.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes20c155.7$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.732615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-67.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeaa…6bf0backed No70c142.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb16e…a134backed Yes11c137.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No39c127$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.223528.6%10 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes21c120.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes20c118.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8217012.9%22 W · 148 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x030a…0994backed Yes28c116.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.811040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes11c115.78$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3784616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf37…8b49backed Yes13c111.85$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.41315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-79%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x893e…6b47backed Yes45c110.87$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid+51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes55c104.1$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.745812.1%7 W · 51 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd4d…cd61backed Yes20c101$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec7…c00abacked Yes35c94.03$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes16c91.12$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3210224.5%25 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d7…7504backed No55c90.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbf…7776backed Yes38c90$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick18cpaid+87.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4735…bf9bbacked Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+377.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf55…9acebacked Yes25c81.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b2…aa53backed Yes63c79.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf699…ff3abacked Yes38c77.74$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3a…d194backed Yes40c77$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.071526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x32b8…2c09backed Yes24c73.48$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.58250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+82.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b2…49febacked No76c70$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.51369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacd1…972abacked Yes15c69.48$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e63…22fabacked Yes31c64.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed49…ebb9backed No74c64.24$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd941…a1d0backed Yes32c61.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204822.9%11 W · 37 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33b5…88bfbacked Yes44c56.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7a1…ad7bbacked Yes29c55$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf8c…183dbacked Yes20c54$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118013.8%11 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.951910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-76.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd7…5863backed No71c42.09$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0570…f927backed No69c37.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.765326.4%14 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fb…2bfdbacked No69c36.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.411540%6 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes33c32.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72412.5%3 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-51.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1430…76acbacked Yes46c32.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.682,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5053…2966backed Yes66c26.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.77450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+191.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6f…328bbacked Yes57c26.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.921050%5 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+57.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e5b…7b54backed No77c24.12$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.