Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 6-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4070f6418dcbfd0c7700eaa6235160da24a26f5f44b4df52cfe6902b8463360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 6c | 23,847$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,434.64 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 5c | 5,277$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.62 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 15c | 4,785$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.97 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 11c | 4,513$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.51 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 11c | 3,866$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.96 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Yes | 14c | 2,469$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.29 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 1,983$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.2 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 17c | 1,605$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.95 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x464e…7bd8backed Yes | 13c | 1,501$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.66 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,465$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.4 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 1,229$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.54 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 1,218$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 20c | 875$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e4…f310backed Yes | 28c | 706.57$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 12c | 699.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 78c | 668.09$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.07 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4345…77fabacked Yes | 18c | 658.2$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab1b…b851backed Yes | 11c | 656.51$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 17c | 641.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.46 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…07c2backed Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39b9…81e5backed Yes | 11c | 551.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 13c | 545.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…67c7backed Yes | 14c | 509.75$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…ff2bbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…0050backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 19c | 450$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 21c | 406.42$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 11c | 394.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc4…46b1backed Yes | 15c | 340.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1106…a85abacked Yes | 23c | 311$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 19c | 297.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 15c | 295.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 21c | 294.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 8c | 290.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 19c | 257.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…0994backed Yes | 19c | 256.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…edb0backed Yes | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641a…6884backed Yes | 9c | 243.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 9c | 225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1152…931fbacked Yes | 17c | 220$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…99d1backed Yes | 23c | 214.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 11c | 200.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 18c | 196.68$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…10c0backed Yes | 10c | 195.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 16c | 190.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 12c | 171.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 14c | 147.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked Yes | 24c | 143.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 11c | 135.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 63c | 133.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed Yes | 17c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 54 | 7.4%4 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 14c | 122.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 25c | 122.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 266 | 19.5%52 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f63…471ebacked Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…9c10backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a6…791cbacked Yes | 19c | 104.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…4d83backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf59…fefdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…e621backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…5907backed Yes | 20c | 99.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 20c | 91.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…5592backed Yes | 18c | 80.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20cf…ee56backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd853…fb3abacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…6d22backed Yes | 22c | 69.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…6422backed Yes | 16c | 62.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…4dbbbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…aff1backed No | 80c | 38.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 79c | 35.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 6-13?this page
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 6-13?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 250 times Dec 6-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.