TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7eb4…ff62

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NBA, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 58 out of 100; worst Tweets at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3073.3%22 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+23.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$41.37
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$150
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$220
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$371Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+34.6%+$128.57
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$355Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$145
Will Domantas Sabonis lead the NBA in Rebounds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.5
Will another player lead the NBA in Rebounds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+129%+$124.69
Bucks vs. Pelicansbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23
Hornets vs. Pelicansbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Heat vs. 76ersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$46
Nets vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.94
Kings vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$53
Knicks vs. Bucksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$93
Clippers vs. Netsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT+25%+$20
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$67
Lakers vs. Pacersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT+28.8%+$67
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$53.5
Cavaliers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$114Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+51.9%+$59.18
Pistons vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT+203%+$134
76ers vs. Spursbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.22
Nets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+129.9%+$56.5
Mavericks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+205.3%+$67.25
Bulls vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$18.82
Thunder vs. Pistonsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2025, EDT+30.8%+$11.78
Magic vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2025, EDT2030%6 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 25–May 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$84.73
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$24.76
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$32.5
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$74.46
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.95
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.2
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+129.9%+$226
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$144.49
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$260
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$315Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST+46.3%+$145.93
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$260
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$34.5
Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$34.5
Will Elon tweet 275-299 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$78
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Nov 29-Dec 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST+186.3%+$220.14
Will Trump tweet 70-79 times Oct 25 - Nov 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$49.1
Will Elon tweet 225-249 October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$34
Will Elon tweet 250-274 October 11-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$40
All 20 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 31, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ipswich win on 2024-11-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST+1,150%+$138
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+491.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+491.7%+$83.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+170.3%+$377.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$5.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 7, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2024, EDT-100%-$30.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oregon win the 2025 College Football Playoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2025, EST-100%-$18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.