Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76c6b39bceff6d6029ac01489fa2a943d30998b4bfa3d99d97c8a264764b94e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $435,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $450,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $435,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 220 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 78c | 12,239$9,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,718.25 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 14c | 10,942$1,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,423.37 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,499.94 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 41c | 8,025$3,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,766.85 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 7c | 8,023$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,432.66 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 45c | 7,339$3,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,072.07 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked No | 0c | 7,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 55c | 6,204$3,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,808.67 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 9c | 4,302$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.73 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 9c | 4,259$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,880.57 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 19c | 4,078$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,319.97 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd5…3f3cbacked No | 3c | 4,003$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 17c | 3,964$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.17 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 7c | 3,710$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,468.41 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 67c | 3,648$2,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,188.33 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 73c | 3,418$2,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.48 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 59c | 3,204$1,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.08 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes | 28c | 2,918$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,089.88 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 2,901$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.97 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 79c | 2,700$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.99 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…505ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,685$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,234.68 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 49c | 2,600$1,267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,333.08 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…485fbacked Yes | 62c | 2,560$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 22c | 2,558$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.24 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,430$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.11 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 35c | 2,337$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.65 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 48c | 2,124$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.18 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 19c | 2,089$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.38 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 22c | 2,036$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.63 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 31c | 2,031$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 13c | 1,913$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,673.12 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 1c | 1,896$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 20c | 1,780$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.09 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 45c | 1,741$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.76 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 33c | 1,654$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.81 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 10c | 1,622$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.4 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed No | 5c | 1,606$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,598$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.66 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…a8c3backed Yes | 17c | 1,583$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,311.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…0e52backed Yes | 29c | 1,406$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 18c | 1,359$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.68 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 4c | 1,252$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…7ff6backed Yes | 13c | 1,218$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.57 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed Yes | 60c | 1,215$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.54 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 17c | 1,199$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.35 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked No | 30c | 1,104$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…2e86backed Yes | 53c | 1,098$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbc…a24cbacked Yes | 66c | 1,093$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 7c | 1,090$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.5 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 14c | 1,065$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.88 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 69c | 1,037$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.08 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…b76bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,026$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.14 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 29c | 992.13$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.25 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 6c | 968.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.71 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…e16abacked Yes | 30c | 962.03$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.73 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b30…ec9ebacked Yes | 8c | 940.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +978.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 16c | 932.69$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.01 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 15c | 907.97$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772.96 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 6c | 905.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.7 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 40c | 887.17$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.51 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 30c | 856.11$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.08 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 39c | 837.98$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.47 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 60c | 805.14$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.51 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 9c | 799.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.44 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 790.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.46 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 6c | 769.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.04 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 43c | 752.12$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.84 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…83f9backed No | 21c | 749.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 36c | 704.36$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.66 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 46c | 702.89$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.56 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 29c | 700.85$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.8 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 7c | 700$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 13c | 700$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 5c | 698.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.12 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 46c | 689.48$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.09 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91d…e92bbacked Yes | 48c | 670.17$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…8e52backed No | 16c | 667.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.71 | 50 | 2%1 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 636.73$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…2391backed Yes | 8c | 615.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +231.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…c96ebacked Yes | 65c | 615.38$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.38 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 611.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.55 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed No | 23c | 607$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.61 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Yes | 74c | 600$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 558.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.82 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…763fbacked No | 9c | 554.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc68…47bdbacked Yes | 70c | 539.39$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 28c | 532.52$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.9 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 44c | 530.15$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.15 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 40c | 528.81$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.78 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…b674backed Yes | 28c | 525$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed No | 71c | 524.08$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.69 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 67c | 512.94$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.54 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed No | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.99 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.