Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x222a2702a6b01dba75015f1be2e1d09d3ec2384a680d0aa84a3ea5e647944e89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $343,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $343,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed Yes | 17c | 14,512$2,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,442.88 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 14,253$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.02 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 3c | 12,823$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.48 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…11dcbacked Yes | 7c | 11,528$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 20c | 10,929$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.47 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 26c | 9,402$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480.43 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 23c | 7,797$1,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,814.39 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 23c | 5,982$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.12 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 41c | 5,500$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.98 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 16c | 5,008$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.41 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 14c | 4,390$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.64 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 11c | 4,303$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.43 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 63c | 4,081$2,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.26 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 13c | 4,021$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.08 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…0f5cbacked No | 78c | 3,941$3,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 16c | 3,755$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.18 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 79c | 3,417$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.16 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 3,133$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 30c | 2,827$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.7 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,732$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.6 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 71c | 2,675$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.47 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…2391backed Yes | 14c | 2,498$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +231.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…f083backed Yes | 28c | 2,313$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 16c | 2,200$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.9 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes | 30c | 2,199$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.4 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 40c | 2,117$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.65 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 26c | 2,100$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.69 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,057$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.48 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 154 | 7.8%12 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…3e1abacked Yes | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 19c | 1,811$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,797$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.1 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 32c | 1,654$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 16c | 1,628$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.3 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…7ff6backed Yes | 16c | 1,537$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 36c | 1,520$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.6 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b316backed Yes | 12c | 1,500$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 7c | 1,488$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 1,471$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.58 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 3c | 1,435$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 27c | 1,358$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.18 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff27…f4d0backed Yes | 35c | 1,350$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 8c | 1,195$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 24c | 1,195$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.72 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 17c | 1,184$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.52 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 12c | 1,171$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.35 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 11c | 1,142$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 16c | 1,115$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 16c | 1,110$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…5acabacked Yes | 12c | 1,097$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.63 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 16c | 999.98$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e0…8412backed Yes | 25c | 984.87$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.23 | 84 | 15.5%13 W · 71 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 22c | 961.29$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 36c | 908.49$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.71 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…2288backed Yes | 9c | 900$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 31c | 834.75$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.5 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 68c | 833.52$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.73 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 13c | 800$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 29c | 690.84$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…a8c3backed Yes | 16c | 689.48$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 35c | 684.24$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.47 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 21c | 661.8$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 26c | 654.9$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.83 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 34c | 653.71$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 26c | 620$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.9 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 11c | 600.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77c…f762backed Yes | 9c | 577.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 14c | 559.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked No | 64c | 540.41$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 32c | 536.41$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.19 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 30c | 527.87$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.35 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 10c | 518.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 59c | 517.38$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 505.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.96 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbc…a24cbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 10c | 480$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 14c | 480$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ec…fcf9backed Yes | 10c | 473$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed Yes | 31c | 467.79$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 70c | 462.08$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432f…9fe5backed Yes | 29c | 459.12$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 31c | 450.38$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.62 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 18c | 444.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.77 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 29c | 439.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.19 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 30c | 437.39$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 34c | 436.04$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f4…4458backed Yes | 12c | 422.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +1,321.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes | 47c | 421.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 40c | 415.33$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.08 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bd…6892backed Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 30c | 394.45$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.99 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2cf0backed Yes | 29c | 385.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 21c | 385.49$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.