Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18327173fa9fbcb624d1273fc4a86807489989173c5c446d0ef4dfe9de90c295
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 2c | 21,235$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.06 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Yes | 0c | 7,501$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 9c | 6,583$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.74 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 0c | 5,338$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 15c | 3,757$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.03 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 3,375$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 15c | 3,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 11c | 2,203$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.65 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 18c | 1,989$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.28 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 7c | 1,915$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 79 | 5.1%4 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 12c | 1,883$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.38 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 1c | 1,572$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 6c | 1,546$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,413$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.78 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 7c | 1,398$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -62%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,274$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcb…f083backed Yes | 17c | 1,163$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 13c | 999.98$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 961.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 3c | 870$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…b674backed Yes | 15c | 802.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 16c | 776.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 4c | 709.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 700$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 690.51$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.84 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 13c | 660$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 9c | 635.74$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 12c | 630$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 10c | 607.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…a8c3backed Yes | 16c | 546.05$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 14c | 499.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 14c | 484$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 18c | 444.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 15c | 418$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 14c | 356$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 15c | 344.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…7ff6backed Yes | 13c | 340.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 14c | 336.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…d3d2backed Yes | 15c | 333.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 15c | 320$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 13c | 299.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…c736backed Yes | 10c | 295.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 11c | 285.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 5c | 268.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 11c | 204.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…63d0backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 282 | 11%31 W · 251 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…e08bbacked Yes | 11c | 190$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 12c | 180.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7883…1e8cbacked Yes | 17c | 177.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 10c | 165$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed Yes | 15c | 160$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 13c | 149.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…3f6bbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…fb48backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe1…7ed9backed Yes | 8c | 130$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…6b4ebacked Yes | 17c | 116.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 17c | 116.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…b96cbacked Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f53…b27abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.