Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2852fb000b6f53f60fcbb623fe26e4da0d78fa8dc1cdbb9f4a75256db8fc8f30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 29,361$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 9,808$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -94.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 8c | 7,943$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.48 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,001$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 6,655$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 14c | 4,019$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.02 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 18c | 3,640$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 9c | 3,460$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.2 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 1c | 3,228$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 20c | 2,289$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.15 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,251$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.36 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 2,091$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 19c | 1,865$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.47 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 14c | 1,800$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 12c | 1,680$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.86 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 13c | 1,602$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.34 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 14c | 1,564$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.03 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…8a48backed Yes | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…eee5backed Yes | 25c | 1,214$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…7ff6backed Yes | 14c | 1,141$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,104$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.16 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,089$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 19c | 1,063$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.41 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 17c | 1,055$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,034$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.08 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc304…97b4backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 9c | 999.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…a8c3backed Yes | 19c | 816.32$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 13c | 799.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4c…3742backed Yes | 12c | 674.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 18c | 672$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.84 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 18c | 630$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 14c | 627$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…b674backed Yes | 20c | 602$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 12c | 587.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 20c | 580$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 557.82$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 12c | 540$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.28 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 19c | 529.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 12c | 494$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 12c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 5c | 350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7883…1e8cbacked Yes | 14c | 325$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 5c | 322.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 11c | 290.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 14c | 283.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…c736backed Yes | 12c | 282.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed Yes | 20c | 280$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…fb48backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1483…e269backed Yes | 16c | 195.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 11c | 177.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 10c | 175.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 12c | 165$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 181 | 8.3%15 W · 166 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…c17fbacked Yes | 13c | 159.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…e16abacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…e0a5backed Yes | 17c | 118.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0596…0008backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -80%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67db…21adbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2cf0backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 14c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 21c | 91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 13c | 82.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd812…d5eebacked No | 79c | 73.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d09…0baabacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…e22ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…cf7ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d3…b242backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5517…e334backed No | 79c | 35.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…f0aabacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…e430backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.