Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe06ed0ab182fe84601b9b7e92ee1e02d8c75ff67aea99599b423232d9a135448
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $408,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $312,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $408,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 0c | 19,059$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 79 | 10.1%8 W · 71 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…11dcbacked Yes | 0c | 12,372$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 11,000$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.41 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 0c | 9,095$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 240 | 1.7%4 W · 236 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +675.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 22c | 7,552$1,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,660.57 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x861d…d181backed Yes | 3c | 7,500$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdea…997dbacked Yes | 2c | 7,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…5484backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6821…5795backed Yes | 3c | 6,500$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb865…e564backed Yes | 3c | 6,500$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…8008backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3625…29aebacked Yes | 2c | 6,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf386…a1d6backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 14c | 6,000$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.55 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 6c | 5,405$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.31 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,335$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 12c | 5,192$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.77 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 0c | 5,150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 149 | 14.1%21 W · 128 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 6c | 4,434$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.34 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 13c | 4,431$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.57 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24db…5947backed Yes | 22c | 3,828$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.48 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 2c | 3,699$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 12c | 3,634$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd712…228dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,398$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 19c | 2,786$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.79 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…3e1abacked Yes | 23c | 2,200$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 15c | 2,186$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.4 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa0…fcc4backed Yes | 24c | 2,174$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 31c | 1,887$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.32 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 24c | 1,644$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.95 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 19c | 1,554$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 16c | 1,500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,482$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 15c | 1,385$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.03 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7e…8a48backed Yes | 9c | 1,333$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed25…b674backed Yes | 20c | 1,273$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,238$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.57 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 4c | 1,220$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…7ff6backed Yes | 16c | 1,195$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,185$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 17c | 1,163$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 1,113$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.38 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 24c | 1,033$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.04 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,026$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 6c | 922.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 12c | 908.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 20c | 900$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 10c | 880.99$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 19c | 850$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.5 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 15c | 800.4$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.97 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 799.98$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…b031backed Yes | 32c | 724.49$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 13c | 677.95$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 672.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 19c | 661.08$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…a8c3backed Yes | 16c | 631.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ba…2526backed No | 80c | 578.75$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.75 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -6.7wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 16c | 540$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0545…02a0backed Yes | 26c | 522.31$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.8 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 11c | 499.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 11c | 494$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5803…13e7backed Yes | 10c | 479.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 8c | 470.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 12c | 468.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 24c | 460$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 12c | 458.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 452.8$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 22c | 448.79$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac75…ed4abacked Yes | 26c | 428.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe71b…7517backed Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 163 | 19%31 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…ec67backed Yes | 25c | 399.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…2f2dbacked No | 78c | 384.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 7c | 355.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e1…5998backed Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e98fbacked Yes | 9c | 345.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 122 | 16.4%20 W · 102 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd32d…3c32backed Yes | 10c | 311.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f7…c4d2backed Yes | 22c | 283.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 26c | 269.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f79…7148backed Yes | 9c | 240$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 109 | 14.7%16 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…fb48backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 7c | 186.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 34c | 171$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 33c | 170.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.24 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 80c | 170.33$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1483…e269backed Yes | 20c | 166.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x100c…cb81backed No | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.