Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbee7ae41793edc129b619eb94926b27eefa60dda13689436f5a0b7a1ce03bdc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $442,121
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $253,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,121 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 0c | 27,417$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.57 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 2c | 25,867$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.17 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 2c | 15,932$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.52 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…3963backed Yes | 1c | 15,224$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 13,799$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.1 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…2f8abacked Yes | 2c | 13,000$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.38 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 5c | 12,818$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.19 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,468$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d7…1935backed Yes | 12c | 10,167$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.87 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 10,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.98 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 4c | 8,045$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.65 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 1c | 7,399$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 72 | 9.7%7 W · 65 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af8…21b0backed Yes | 5c | 6,611$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8645…09ccbacked Yes | 2c | 6,253$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51d6…3836backed Yes | 2c | 6,178$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.04 | 150 | 6%9 W · 141 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0211…67ecbacked Yes | 1c | 5,335$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 2c | 5,074$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.84 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 3c | 5,044$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 3c | 4,332$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes | 3c | 4,324$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.01 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2631…4d56backed Yes | 4c | 4,251$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.6 | 104 | 9.6%10 W · 94 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…0e52backed Yes | 2c | 4,184$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Yes | 2c | 3,710$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…3e1abacked Yes | 2c | 3,543$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -75%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 3c | 3,109$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 2c | 3,100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,822$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf5…ab69backed Yes | 2c | 2,818$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 2,712$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed Yes | 5c | 2,644$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.89 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 5c | 2,530$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.5 | 98 | 11.2%11 W · 87 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd956…485fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 4c | 2,490$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe688…5f8fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,485$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 5c | 2,171$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,071$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 3c | 1,894$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 2c | 1,866$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,865$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb0…12d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,757$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,721$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…8371backed Yes | 3c | 1,705$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,656$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…d9a3backed Yes | 3c | 1,647$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,565$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…7e5fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 68 | 17.6%12 W · 56 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 4c | 1,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 2c | 1,376$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…04c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,340$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 138 | 11.6%16 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,210$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c58…14f7backed Yes | 9c | 1,138$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 15.9%10 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 2c | 1,128$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 2c | 1,093$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8017…6c1cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 3c | 971$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…7ff6backed Yes | 7c | 906.37$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a92…a832backed Yes | 6c | 888.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f30…6b5cbacked Yes | 2c | 869.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 5c | 826.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c26…9a9bbacked Yes | 3c | 800$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 3c | 768.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d4…3602backed Yes | 3c | 759.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +484.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cc…6ba0backed Yes | 4c | 714.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 57 | 10.5%6 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 700.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…2391backed Yes | 3c | 661.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +231.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 4c | 608.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed Yes | 7c | 592.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75fc…e63bbacked Yes | 2c | 583.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…e16abacked Yes | 3c | 579.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 2c | 563.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 8.8%5 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 3c | 556.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa705…9c86backed Yes | 3c | 541.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 2c | 530$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 5c | 529.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…6fb2backed Yes | 9c | 459.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 4c | 454.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed Yes | 5c | 450$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 10c | 418.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 4c | 408.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b01…c35fbacked Yes | 3c | 399.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…c47cbacked Yes | 3c | 389.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf056…ac3dbacked Yes | 5c | 388.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…73fcbacked Yes | 6c | 320.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…7e59backed Yes | 7c | 308$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadab…12a0backed Yes | 7c | 284.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…be78backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -68%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed36…a67cbacked Yes | 6c | 193.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…6bd3backed Yes | 7c | 192.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…ccbabacked Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…0446backed Yes | 8c | 166.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times April 11–18?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times April 11–18?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350–374 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375–399 times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400 or more times April 11–18?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.