MLB · resolved market
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc339a51acd7e974d793fad39d362ea7c2439fee4c003146a133bbbb8760cc4f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,611
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac27…bff0backed Yes | 17c | 11,907$1,985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,985.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 16c | 3,373$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.15 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,315$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.52 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 15c | 1,924$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.99 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,306$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 328 | 50.3%165 W · 163 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 18c | 851.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 14c | 719.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f53…07f4backed Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…b5c9backed Yes | 9c | 650$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…fac7backed Yes | 16c | 625$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 540.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 18c | 449.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…3c57backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc465…fcfbbacked Yes | 16c | 315.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…2284backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e0…75e4backed Yes | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Yes | 16c | 290.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 17c | 287.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…cb91backed Yes | 16c | 217$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9c…c032backed Yes | 16c | 201.03$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…6af8backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…ff62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 187 | 50.3%94 W · 93 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc721…5238backed Yes | 15c | 184.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 8c | 173$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 168.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534d…84fbbacked Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…e6e7backed Yes | 17c | 132$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2876…52aebacked Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea24…3e38backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…5de1backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 15c | 110.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 14c | 100.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ac…6644backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3c…1613backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…2560backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the World Series?this page
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the World Series?No won
- Will the Atlanta Braves win the World Series?No won
- Will the Baltimore Orioles win the World Series?No won
- Will the Boston Red Sox win the World Series?No won
- Will the Chicago Cubs win the World Series?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Reds win the World Series?No won
- Will the Cleveland Guardians win the World Series?No won
- Will the Colorado Rockies win the World Series?No won
- Will the Detroit Tigers win the World Series?No won
- Will the Houston Astros win the World Series?No won
- Will the Kansas City Royals win the World Series?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Angels win the World Series?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series?Yes won
- Will the Miami Marlins win the World Series?No won
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the World Series?No won
- Will the Minnesota Twins win the World Series?No won
- Will the New York Mets win the World Series?No won
- Will the New York Yankees win the World Series?No won
- Will the Oakland Athletics win the World Series?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the World Series?No won
- Will the San Diego Padres win the World Series?No won
- Will the San Francisco Giants win the World Series?No won
- Will the Seattle Mariners win the World Series?No won
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the World Series?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the World Series?No won
- Will the Texas Rangers win the World Series?No won
- Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the World Series?No won
- Will the Washington Nationals win the World Series?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.