TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will the Houston Astros win the World Series?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$52,605
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,350

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,605 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x064d…a0e4backed Yes9c6,253$551 inLost-$551.360%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5d8…e9a1backed Yes11c4,011$440 inLost-$4403237.5%12 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick45cpaid+9.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x830d…3f0ebacked Yes10c4,000$385 inLost-$38510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes7c2,520$176 inLost-$176.43525.7%9 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick21cpaid-15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked Yes9c2,356$201 inLost-$200.63119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-72%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes7c2,000$146 inLost-$146.053743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d59…133dbacked Yes9c1,272$112 inLost-$112.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d5…742dbacked Yes9c1,120$101 inLost-$100.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes16c1,099$175 inLost-$17550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfaf…fac7backed Yes10c1,029$100 inLost-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6650…d38ebacked Yes8c1,003$80 inLost-$80.272931%9 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost-$501010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-82.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc465…fcfbbacked Yes7c857.14$60 inLost-$602065%13 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+17.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x26cf…faebbacked Yes10c750$75 inLost-$7540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddf3…3c57backed Yes6c700$42 inLost-$42714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes8c627.42$49 inLost-$49.4110328.2%29 W · 74 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes10c484$48 inLost-$48.44250%21 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa847…f3abbacked Yes9c322.22$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes9c280$26 inLost-$25.563942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe329…2b1ebacked Yes9c250$24 inLost-$23.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes9c211.7$19 inLost-$19.0560%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0676…c0ecbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3026…cac2backed Yes10c200$20 inLost-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd387…cb91backed Yes9c186$17 inLost-$16.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842c…2e53backed Yes10c120$12 inLost-$121838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7941…c675backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$101216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02cd…8c43backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.